Whittaker vs de Ridder > Davey Grant vs Da'Mon Blackshear > Fight Analysis

Davey Grant vs Da’Mon Blackshear Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Davey Grant vs Da’Mon Blackshear Odds, Analysis & AI Pick

Published

Mon Jul 14 2025

Last Updated

Mon Jul 14 2025

Davey Grant vs Da’Mon Blackshear Fight Analysis

Fight Overview

On July 26, 2025, at precisely 16:00 UTC, two seasoned bantamweights will clash on the Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. de Ridder. The bruising showdown takes place at the spectacular Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, marking another high-stakes night under the bright lights of one of the UFC’s most iconic venues. Neither fighter will leave the cage unchanged as Davey Grant and Da’Mon Blackshear bring contrasting styles, notable experience, and plenty of narrative intrigue to the Octagon.

Grant, the 39-year-old veteran from Bishop Auckland, England, makes his first appearance of 2025 after rebounding from a unanimous decision victory over Ramon Taveras in December 2024. With a UFC record of 16–7, including 4 knockouts, 9 submissions, and a staggering 7 first-round finishes, Grant remains a danger man in the bantamweight division. His 44% significant strike accuracy and 40% takedown accuracy underscore a well-rounded offensive toolkit, but his 61% takedown defense has been tested by dynamic wrestlers in the past.

Blackshear, the 30-year-old American who hails from the Carolinas, steps into enemy territory on the back of three straight wins—including back-to-back submissions over Cody Gibson and Cody Stamann. His UFC ledger reads 17–7–1, boasting 11 submission victories, yet zero first-round finishes to date. Known for a measured pace and a 36% takedown accuracy combined with 71% takedown defense, Blackshear has showcased a well-developed grappling foundation and a 53% significant strike defense that frustrates his opponents’ offense.

Betting Odds & Key Matchup Dynamics

As fight night approaches, the oddsmakers have firmly installed Da’Mon Blackshear as the favorite with consensus odds hovering around -250 on major U.S. books (Caesars, DraftKings, BetRivers, BetOnline). This reflects both his recent momentum and his versatile grappling arsenal. In contrast, Davey Grant enters as the +205 underdog, offering value to bettors who believe the veteran’s finishing instinct and first-round firepower can upend the chalk.

Striking Exchanges: Grant’s slightly higher volume (44% accuracy vs. 46% for Blackshear) and experience in mixing up strikes with takedown attempts could press the pace early.
Grappling & Control: While Blackshear leads with more submission wins and superior takedown defense (71% vs. 61%), Grant’s 40% takedown success rate hints at an ability to drag the fight into dangerous territory on the mat.
Card Positioning: As a preliminary-card bout, both men will be eager to make a statement, knowing a finish could catapult them into the televised portion of the event and earn further UFC recognition.

With styles that promise both fireworks and strategic grappling scrambles, this bantamweight contest is poised to be a highlight of the early card. Whether you lean toward the grappling pedigree of Da’Mon Blackshear or the all-around finishing prowess of Davey Grant, the odds and the Octagon positioning ensure that every minute — or every second — will matter. Place your bets, set your alarms, and prepare for an electric showdown at the Etihad Arena this July.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Davey Grant vs Da'Mon Blackshear can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Da’Mon Blackshear Profile

Age: 30
Country: United States
Fighting Style: MMA base with a strong wrestling and submission pedigree

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

  • 2025-04-26: Win vs Heili Alateng (Decision – Unanimous)
  • 2025-03-15: Win vs Cody Gibson (Submission – Rnd 2, 4:09)
  • 2024-11-09: Win vs Cody Stamann (Submission – Rnd 1, 4:19)
  • 2024-07-13: Loss vs Montel Jackson (KO/TKO – Rnd 1, 0:18)
  • 2023-08-19: Loss vs Mario Bautista (Decision – Unanimous)

Blackshear enters this bout riding a three-fight win streak, all on the heels of dominant grappling displays. His back-to-back submissions over Gibson and Stamann showcase an ever-improving ground game, while the unanimous decision over Alateng highlights his ability to mix in strikes and manage distance over 15 minutes.

Strengths

  • Elite Grappling: With 11 submission victories on his 17 career wins, Blackshear’s 36% takedown accuracy and 71% takedown defense make him one of the division’s most dangerous wrestlers.
  • Damage Mitigation: A 53% significant strike defense rate indicates he can evade and absorb incoming offense, nullifying opponents’ power shots.
  • Consistent Pace: An average fight time of 9:36 suggests he’s comfortable working through all rounds without gas tank issues.

Weaknesses

  • Lack of Early Finishes: Despite submission prowess, he has zero first-round finishes, pointing to slower starts and possible early vulnerability.
  • Limited Knockout Power: Only two KOs in 17 wins reflect a less threatening striking game, potentially allowing heavy hitters to outpoint him.
  • Striking Output: His 46% significant strike accuracy is respectable but may lag against volume strikers or elite counter-punchers.

Davey Grant Profile

Age: 39
Country: England
Fighting Style: MMA hybrid with strong striking foundation and submission skills

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

  • 2024-12-14: Win vs Ramon Taveras (Decision – Unanimous)
  • 2023-07-22: Loss vs Daniel Marcos (Decision – Split)
  • 2023-03-11: Win vs Raphael Assunção (Submission – Rnd 3, 4:43)
  • 2022-05-14: Win vs Louis Smolka (KO/TKO – Rnd 3, 0:49)
  • 2021-11-20: Loss vs Adrian Yanez (Decision – Split)

Grant has gone 3-2 in his last five outings, most recently dispatching Taveras with a unanimous decision. His win over Assunção demonstrated veteran savvy—dragging the fight to the third round for a slick rear-naked choke—and the TKO of Smolka in 2022 underscored first-round power.

Strengths

  • Finishing Instinct: Boasting 7 first-round finishes, Grant possesses sharp explosive striking and the ability to end fights early before complex grappling exchanges emerge.
  • Balanced Offense: With 44% significant strike accuracy and 40% takedown accuracy, he can threaten on the feet and on the mat, keeping opponents guessing.
  • Veteran Experience: A UFC staple since 2013, his ring IQ and composure under pressure give him an edge in close, strategic bouts.

Weaknesses

  • Age & Durability: At 39 years old, questions loom over his speed, reflexes, and recovery, especially in later rounds or in the heat of a sustained grappling battle.
  • Grappling Defense: His 61% takedown defense is solid but lags behind Blackshear’s offensive wrestling, suggesting potential trips to the mat.
  • Striking Defense: A 56% significant strike defense means he can be hit cleanly by dynamic strikers, leaving him open in exchanges.

Both men bring contrasting weapons: Blackshear’s grappling prowess and fight-finishing accuracy on the mat versus Grant’s explosive early power and veteran savvy. As they collide on July 26 in Abu Dhabi, this bantamweight showdown offers a classic striker-vs-grappler chess match—where every statistic and stylistic nuance could tip the balance.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of the latest consensus across major U.S. sportsbooks, Da’Mon Blackshear is firmly installed as the favorite, with moneyline odds sitting around -250 at Caesars, DraftKings, and BetRivers. BetOnline shows a minor adjustment to -252, but for all practical purposes Blackshear remains a 1.4-to-1 favorite.
In stark contrast, Davey Grant is the underdog at roughly +205 on Caesars and DraftKings, +195 at BetRivers, and peaking at +212 with BetOnline. This line differential reflects both Blackshear’s recent three-fight win streak and his grappling pedigree, while Grant’s status as the veteran finisher with seven first-round stoppages gives value to those backing the upset.

Odds History & Line Movement

A close examination of BetOnline’s time-stamped data reveals significant swings in both fighters’ lines over just a few days:

  • Da’Mon Blackshear opened at -500 on July 10, then steadily shortened to -475, -425, -350, -300, and finally settling at -252 on July 14.
  • Davey Grant started as a massive underdog at +385, moving through +375, +355, +285, +250, and improving to +212 by July 14.

These adjustments suggest heavy wagering on Grant throughout the week, prompting bookmakers to offer more attractive returns for fans betting on the English contender. It also indicates a waning confidence in Blackshear’s ability to cover the spread as early money poured in on the veteran’s finishing upside.

Payout Scenarios for a $1,000 Bet

  • Betting $1,000 on Da’Mon Blackshear at -250 would return approximately $1,400 (your $1,000 stake plus about $400 in winnings).
  • Betting $1,000 on Davey Grant at +205 would return approximately $3,050 (your $1,000 stake plus about $2,050 in winnings).
  • If you’re shopping for the best underdog line, BetOnline’s +212 boosts your payout to roughly $3,120 on a $1,000 wager—an extra $70 compared to the standard +205 lines.

Implied Probabilities

While nobody cares about the exact math, the takeaway is clear: Blackshear is heavily favored to win—investors believe he has roughly a 70–75% chance to emerge victorious—whereas Grant’s underdog price suggests he’s viewed as having roughly a 30–35% chance in most books. Keep in mind that implied probabilities always leave a margin for the house, so real-world expectations may vary slightly.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

  • For backing the favorite, stick with Caesars, DraftKings, or BetRivers to secure the tighter -250 line.
  • For chasing value on the underdog, BetOnline is the top choice thanks to its +212 for Grant, translating to a higher potential payout on the same $1,000 bet.

In summary, the line movement tells the story of bettors chasing an experienced finisher in Grant, forcing the odds to shift dramatically in his favor. Blackshear still holds the edge on paper, but sharp money has made Grant an increasingly tempting long shot. Choose your side and your sportsbook wisely—this bantamweight scrap promises not just fireworks in the cage but on the betting sheet as well.

AI Pick: Da'Mon Blackshear

Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Da'Mon Blackshear, or see all the AI picks for Whittaker vs de Ridder. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.

Written byJackson 'The Sharp' Martinez

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