Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong UFC 324 Odds & AI Pick

Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong fight analysis

Introduction

The bantamweight clash between Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong is set to electrify the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on January 25, 2026. As part of the Main Card for UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett, the two dynamic strikers will square off under the lights of one of the sport’s most iconic venues. Fans around the world can tune in when the octagon door closes at 2:00 AM ET (local) to witness what promises to be a high-octane battle between two of the division’s top contenders.

Event Details

• Date & Time: January 25, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
• Event: UFC 324 – Main Card Bantamweight Bout

Betting Lines: Favorite vs. Underdog

Across major sportsbooks, Sean O’Malley enters as the clear favorite, commanding moneyline odds in the neighborhood of –210 (Caesars, BetMGM) to –195 (Bovada). His combination of pinpoint striking accuracy (61 % significant strike accuracy) and knockout power (12 KOs in 18 wins) has bettors backing “Sugar” to extend his impressive UFC run. Conversely, Song Yadong comes in as the underdog with plus-money odds ranging from +163 (BetRivers) to +175 (Caesars). Yadong’s well-rounded skill set—44 % striking accuracy, three submission victories, and a willingness to engage on the feet—makes him a live dog in the betting markets and a threat to hand O’Malley his next setback.

This showdown represents a fascinating stylistic chess match. O’Malley, currently ranked #3 in the bantamweight division, boasts lightning-fast combinations and an unorthodox striking arsenal that has led to nine first-round finishes and an average fight time of just 11:19. At 31 years old, the former Contender Series standout has matured into one of the division’s most feared knockout artists. On the other side, 27-year-old Song Yadong (#5 ranked bantamweight) brings championship experience and a veteran presence to the cage. With a 22-8-1 record, including nine UFC appearances, Yadong has faced elite opponents—most recently earning a unanimous decision win over former flyweight champion Henry Cejudo.

As the betting line suggests, O’Malley is favored to continue his ascent toward title contention, but Yadong has the tools to spring an upset. His reach is slightly shorter (67 in vs. 72 in), but his takedown defense (74 %) and counter-striking ability create unique challenges for any opponent. Expect both fighters to test each other’s fundamentals early—O’Malley looking to establish range and volume, Yadong aiming to close distance and capitalize on counter opportunities.

In this fight breakdown, we’ll delve deeper into each athlete’s recent form, statistical advantages, and tactical approaches. Whether you’re placing a wager or simply appreciating elite bantamweight action, this contest between Sean O’Malley and Song Yadong is a can’t-miss main card attraction at UFC 324.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Sean O'Malley vs Song Yadong can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Gaethje vs Pimblett can be found on the Gaethje vs Pimblett event page.

Matchup & Fighter Profiles

Sean O’Malley Profile

Name: Sean O’Malley
Age: 31
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Striker / Counter-Puncher
Division Ranking: #3 Bantamweight

Recent Form

1. Sep. 14, 2024 – Loss vs Merab Dvalishvili (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Mar. 9, 2024 – Win vs Marlon Vera (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Aug. 19, 2023 – Win vs Aljamain Sterling (KO/TKO, Round 2, 0:51)
4. Oct. 22, 2022 – Win vs Petr Yan (Decision – Split)
5. Jul. 18, 2017 – UFC Debut (Win vs Andre Soukhamthath)

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (61%): O’Malley lands over three out of every five significant strikes, the highest mark in this matchup.
• Knockout Power: 12 of his 18 wins have come by KO/TKO, including nine first-round finishes.
• Unorthodox Attack: Uses feints, angles and “foot-on-the-cage” setups to create openings.
• Offensive Volume: Average of 6.2 significant strikes landed per minute, putting constant pressure on opponents.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Defense (61%): Vulnerable to high-level wrestlers; Merab Dvalishvili’s relentless takedowns exposed him in his last outing.
• Grappling Experience: 0 submission wins and limited ground control; could struggle if Song mixes levels effectively.
• Chin Durability: Though rarely dropped, O’Malley’s output has dipped when backed up by pressure fighters.

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Song Yadong Profile

Name: Song Yadong
Age: 27
Country: China
Fighting Style: Boxer / All-Around MMA
Division Ranking: #5 Bantamweight

Recent Form

1. Feb. 22, 2025 – Win vs Henry Cejudo (Decision – Unanimous)
2. Mar. 9, 2024 – Loss vs Petr Yan (Decision – Unanimous)
3. Dec. 9, 2023 – Win vs Chris Gutierrez (Decision – Unanimous)
4. Apr. 29, 2023 – Win vs Ricky Simon (KO/TKO, Round 5, 1:10)
5. Sep. 17, 2022 – Loss vs Cory Sandhagen (TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage)

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (74%): Among the best in the division—significantly higher than O’Malley’s 61%.
• Durability & Cardio: Average fight time 13:05 and five-round veteran; thrives deep into the contest.
• Balanced Skill-Set: With 9 KO and 3 submission victories, he can finish fights both standing and on the mat.
• Counter Striking: 56% sig strike defense, effectively neutralizing incoming attacks and turning them into offense.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (44%): Misses more than half of his significant strikes, which could play into O’Malley’s hands in a volume battle.
• Takedown Offense (38%): While his defense is elite, his ability to threaten takedowns is below average, limiting ground-and-pound opportunities.
• Pacing vs. Power: Relatively few first-round stoppages (7) compared to O’Malley’s nine; slow starters may be outworked early.

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Head-to-Head Outlook

This contest features a classic striker-versus-boxer dynamic. O’Malley will look to exploit his superior striking accuracy and knockout power, maintaining range and landing sharp combinations. Song, however, boasts the edge in takedown defense and endurance—if he can withstand the early storm, he may drag O’Malley into deeper waters where his cardio and versatility shine. Bettors should weigh O’Malley’s finishing upside against Yadong’s proven resilience and championship-level durability.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As we approach fight night at UFC 324, Sean O’Malley is firmly installed as the favorite across the board, while Song Yadong carries underdog status. Here’s a snapshot of the current moneylines:

• Sean O’Malley
  • Caesars: –210
  • DraftKings: –198
  • BetMGM: –210
  • Bovada: –195 ← best favorite payout
• Song Yadong
  • Caesars: +175 ← best underdog payout
  • DraftKings: +164
  • FanDuel: +164
  • BetRivers: +163

O’Malley’s negative odds require a $210 wager at Caesars or BetMGM to win $100, whereas a $195 bet at Bovada secures the same return—making Bovada the top choice for backing the favorite. On the flip side, Song at +175 on Caesars means a $100 stake yields $175 profit ($275 total return), the most generous offer for underdog bettors.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

A look at the line history reveals notable fluctuations that hint at where sharp money has landed:

• O’Malley’s trajectory
  • Opened around –250 on major books in late December
  • Shifted to roughly –225 by January 6
  • Settled near –195 to –210 by January 12

  The favorite’s line has steadily moved closer to pick-’em territory, suggesting significant action on Song Yadong.

• Yadong’s trajectory
  • Debuted around +185–190 in late December
  • Climbed as high as +200 on some BetOnline markets
  • Tightened to +165–175 by January 12

  The underdog line compressed by 20–30 cents, reflecting confidence from bettors who see value on Yadong’s toughness and championship-caliber durability.

Potential Payouts & Implied Chances

If you risk $1,000:

• On Sean O’Malley at Bovada (–195): you’d collect $1,513 back (your $1,000 stake plus ~$513 profit).
• On Song Yadong at Caesars (+175): you’d receive $2,750 in total (your $1,000 stake plus $1,750 profit).

These lines imply win probabilities of roughly 68% for O’Malley and 36% for Song—vig-adjusted figures that underscore O’Malley’s edge but also spotlight Yadong as a live dog with a one-in-three chance according to the market.

Best Sportsbook to Bet

• Favorite play: Bovada at –195 offers the softest line on O’Malley, maximizing profit on a blue-chip pick.
• Underdog play: Caesars at +175 grants the richest payout on Yadong, ideal for bettors targeting a high-risk, high-reward scenario.

By monitoring these shifts, you can gauge where money continues to flow and adjust your wagers accordingly. Whether you lean toward “Sugar” O’Malley’s knockout prowess or Song’s granite chin and grit, the evolving odds paint a picture of a fight that could swing either way—making smart line shopping crucial for UFC bettors.