Winner: Casey O'Neill
Confidence Score: 75Casey O'Neill has a more well-rounded MMA style compared to Gabriella Fernandes' striking-focused approach. O'Neill boasts higher significant strike accuracy (53% vs 48%), better significant strike defense (57% vs 52%), and a much stronger takedown game (35% accuracy vs 18%). She also has a slight edge in takedown defense (70% vs 69%) and a notable reach advantage (69" vs 66"). O'Neill is younger (28 vs 32), typically an advantage in flyweight matchups, and has more UFC experience against ranked opponents. Fernandes is on a three-fight win streak, but her wins have come against lower-ranked or less well-rounded competition and she has struggled against strong grapplers. Historically, fighters with O'Neill's statistical profile and MMA base outperform pure strikers with lower takedown defense and accuracy. All these factors make O'Neill the more likely winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Adesanya vs Pyfer can be found on the Adesanya vs Pyfer event page.
