Winner: Robert Whittaker
Confidence Score: 75Robert Whittaker holds a significant advantage in UFC and high-level competition experience compared to Khamzat Chimaev. With a record of 27-7 and substantial experience in five-round fights, he has competed at the highest level for a sustained period, including becoming and defending as the UFC Middleweight Champion. Whittaker's striking accuracy is not as high as Chimaev's, at 43% compared to Chimaev's 59%, but his significant strike defense stands notably higher at 60% against Chimaev's 42%. This suggests that Whittaker may be better at evading strikes and launching effective counter-attacks. Furthermore, Whittaker's takedown defense of 83% suggests he is adept at evading Chimaev's takedown attempts, which could neutralize one of Chimaev's key strengths since Chimaev's grappling is a significant part of his game plan. While Chimaev has an undefeated record (13-0) and is regarded as a rising star with excellent first-round finishes and a high finishing rate, the level of competition he has faced is not as consistently high as Whittaker's opponents. Chimaev's most notable win was his recent majority decision over Kamaru Usman, a former welterweight champion, which showed his ability to compete at a high level. However, Whittaker's experience, well-rounded skill set, especially his ability to adapt, and his formidable defense make him a challenging matchup for Chimaev. Considering these factors, I predict Whittaker to edge out Chimaev, potentially by decision, leveraging his experience and ability to manage the fight pace effectively.
Live odds
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