Winner: Thiago Moises
Confidence Score: 70Thiago Moises displays a well-rounded skill set and has more experience at the UFC level compared to Trey Ogden. Moises, with an 18-8 record, has more diversity in his win methods, having both knockout and submission victories, which indicates a versatile approach to fights. His 40% significant strike accuracy is not remarkable but is complemented by a solid 55% significant strike defense, signifying a competent stand-up game.
Moreover, Moises's average fight time is shorter than Ogden, suggesting he may be more efficient in finishing fights rather than relying on decisions. His 36% takedown accuracy, though slightly better than Ogden's 31%, along with his previous high-level competition, potentially provides him with an edge in grappling exchanges. Moises also has an established submission skill set demonstrated by 7 submission wins, which could be crucial against Ogden, who has a 100% takedown defense but has been susceptible on the ground.
Trey Ogden's recent fight history shows a couple of decisions wins, but prior to those, he had losses, indicating inconsistency. While Ogden's strengths lie in his jiu-jitsu with 11 submission victories, his striking and overall fight strategy might be outclassed by a more versatile opponent like Moises. This fight might come down to who can impose their strategy more effectively, but Moises's broader arsenal and experience give him the edge.
Live odds
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