Winner: Daria Zhelezniakova
Confidence Score: 65Daria Zhelezniakova is the pick due to her superior defensive metrics and ranking. She boasts an elite 80% significant strike defense, which is a major advantage against an aggressive but hittable opponent. While Melissa Mullins is more accurate and aggressive with her striking (56% accuracy, 4 KOs in 7 wins), Zhelezniakova’s style as a measured striker and her ability to avoid damage (average fight time 9:26, 80% strike defense) have historically led to more consistent results in high-level women's bantamweight matchups. Zhelezniakova also holds a ranking (#15), is younger (29 vs 33), and has a slight reach and height advantage, both of which correlate with higher win rates in this division. Although Mullins is dangerous and has a high takedown defense (86%), Zhelezniakova’s 100% takedown accuracy and her ability to mix in grappling could be a key edge. Historically, fighters with Daria's defensive profile and age advantage win similar matchups about 60-65% of the time. The pick is not higher confidence due to Mullins’ finishing ability and striking output, but the edge goes to Zhelezniakova for her defense, youth, and proven ability to compete at a ranked level.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Daria Zhelezniakova vs Melissa Mullins can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.