Winner: Hamdy Abdelwahab
Confidence Score: 68Hamdy Abdelwahab is undefeated (6-0) and has a significant statistical edge in key grappling metrics, with an 80% takedown accuracy and 100% takedown defense, compared to Mohammed Usman's 18% takedown accuracy and 60% takedown defense. Abdelwahab also lands more significant strikes with higher accuracy (52% vs. Usman's 37%) and has a higher rate of first-round finishes. Usman is on a two-fight losing streak and has struggled with activity and output, while Abdelwahab's wrestling base and finishing ability have translated well in the heavyweight division. Historically, heavyweights with strong wrestling and high takedown defense outperform more well-rounded but less specialized opponents, especially when they are younger and undefeated. While Usman has a reach advantage and more overall experience, Abdelwahab's style and statistical profile make him the more likely winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.