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Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez: UFC Odds & Analysis

Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez: UFC Odds & Analysis

Published

Fri May 02 2025

Last Updated

Fri May 02 2025

Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez: A Lightweight Clash in the Octagon

Get ready, UFC fans and sports bettors! The highly anticipated lightweight showdown between Benoit Saint Denis and Joel Alvarez is about to set the Bell Centre in Montréal, Canada, on fire. Slated for May 11, 2025, this contest is positioned on the main card of UFC 315, headlined by Muhammad vs Della Maddalena. As adrenaline levels and betting odds simmer, all eyes will be glued to the octagon for this riveting bout.

For those making their UFC betting strategies, this match-up offers intrigue with its fluctuating odds and contrasting styles. As of now, Joel Alvarez, hailing from Gijón, Spain, strides into the ring as the favorite with bookmakers like BetOnline.ag offering odds of -220 in his favor. Ranked #15 in the Lightweight Division, Alvarez is renowned for his striking prowess, which is bolstered by a significant reach advantage. Standing 6'2" with an arm span of 77 inches, he's a leviathan in the division, a factor that cannot be overlooked in his fight strategy.

Alvarez carries a remarkable record of 22 wins, only 3 losses, and no draws. Itemizing his path of destruction, 17 of his victories have come by way of submission, showcasing his grip on the mat. Notably, his recent performances have been electrifying, with a string of decisive victories that include a first-round KO/TKO against Drakkar Klose and a third-round blitz over Elves Brener. It’s no wonder sports analysts and bettors keep Alvarez in their crosshairs when talking UFC betting tips.

On the other end, donning the tricolor of France is Benoit Saint Denis. Representing the #13 rank in the Lightweight Division, Denis isn’t just stepping into the octagon—he's storming back with a point to prove. Despite being the underdog with odds such as +185 from BetOnline.ag, Saint Denis remains undeterred. His well-rounded MMA style, evidenced by a 13-3-0 record, ensures he’s no pushover. At 5’11”, his compact stature is leveraged through powerful strikes and an impressive ground game characterized by 9 submission wins.

Saint Denis's recent record, however, reflects a series of ebbs and flows, with notable losses against top dogs like Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano. Yet, his ability to deliver explosive finishes, even under pressure, was evident when he dismantled Matt Frevola in quick fashion. His average fight time might be slightly longer than Alvarez, but don’t let that fool you into thinking Saint Denis is any less thrilling.

The Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez clash is more than just a fight; it's a convergence of skill, will, and stakes. The odds swings, which have seen Alvarez’s favor steadily climb, and Saint Denis’s fervor for an upset, make this matchup irresistible for UFC bettors and fans alike. So, gear up and strategize, as this battle promises to be an enthralling display of the lightweight division’s best.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Muhammad vs Della Maddalena can be found on the Muhammad vs Della Maddalena event page.

Fighter Profiles: Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez

The spotlight shines bright on the profiles of two distinctive warriors set to clash at UFC 315: Benoit Saint Denis and Joel Alvarez. With diverse backgrounds and fighting styles, this matchup is an ode to the unpredictable excitement of UFC showdowns.

Benoit Saint Denis: The Resilient Frenchman

Hailing from the historic city of Nîmes, France, Benoit Saint Denis is a fighter who's carved his path through a robust mixed martial arts (MMA) style. At 29 years old, Saint Denis stands at 5'11" with an arm reach of 73 inches and a leg reach of 40 inches. His commitment to the sport is showcased in his UFC career, which began in October 2021. His versatile approach to fighting combines striking power with a strategic ground game, earning him the title "God of War" among his fans.

In terms of recent form, Saint Denis’ last five bouts present a canvas of learning and growth punctuated by both victories and setbacks. Notably, he achieved a significant win over Matt Frevola with a first-round TKO and followed up with a victory against Thiago Moises, showcasing his striking prowess. However, subsequent losses to MMA giants like Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano exposed his vulnerabilities, particularly in defending against elite strikers and grapplers.

Examining his statistics reveals a fighter with notable strengths yet visible areas for improvement. His 53% striking accuracy is commendable, indicating efficiency in landing significant strikes. Additionally, a submission rate featuring 9 out of 13 wins underscores his submission acumen. However, he faces challenges with a lower significant strike defense percentage of 41%. Despite a decent takedown accuracy of 37%, his takedown defense at 69% suggests room for sharper defensive maneuvers.

Joel Alvarez: The Spanish Matador in the Octagon

Joel Alvarez, the Spanish dynamo, brings a formidable presence to the octagon with his height advantage and a penchant for submission finishes. Born in Gijón, Spain, the 32-year-old Alvarez stands tall at 6'2", with an impressive arm reach of 77 inches and leg reach of 42 inches. Debuting in the UFC in February 2019, his career in MMA is characterized by an assertive striking style backed by a robust submission game.

Alvarez carries a remarkable fighting record, showcasing dominant form in his last few outings. Victory-by-KO rulings against opponents such as Drakkar Klose and Elves Brener highlight his striking capabilities, while his submission over Marc Diakiese exemplifies his ground-game prowess. However, Alvarez's sole recent loss came against Arman Tsarukyan, providing a glimpse into his struggles with high-pressure, aggressive opponents.

His statistics are a testament to his strengths. A 54% significant strike accuracy places him among efficient strikers, while a staggering 17 out of 22 victories via submission highlight his grappling superiority. However, his takedown accuracy at 0% suggests a reliance on striking and submission over wrestling, a nuanced detail for those analyzing his strategy. Although his takedown defense is at 40%, Alvarez's resilience in utilizing his reach and striking skills remains a formidable aspect of his fight strategy.

In the Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez breakdown, both fighters present a dance of contrasting styles; while Saint Denis brings a balanced approach, Alvarez steps in with striking confidence and submission mastery. Together, they promise an electrifying matchup that is sure to captivate the hearts of UFC fans and bettors worldwide.

Betting Odds and History: Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez

Diving into the betting scene of the Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez fight reveals a myriad of opportunities for UFC betting aficionados. Current odds are a vital component of evaluating fight dynamics and potential payouts, offering a window into how the betting community views this exhilarating matchup.

Current Betting Odds

As we inch closer to fight night, Joel Alvarez stands as the betting favorite. Odds as listed by bookmakers like BetOnline.ag favor Alvarez at -220, underscoring his perceived advantage in the octagon. This betting line essentially means that a wager of $220 on Alvarez is needed to pocket a $100 profit. The Spanish fighter’s prowess and recent victories have solidified his status in the minds of betting professionals and fans alike.

On the flip side, Benoit Saint Denis enters as the underdog with odds such as +185. For those willing to back the Frenchman, this underdog status indicates a higher potential reward—$185 return on a $100 wager if Saint Denis pulls off the upset. His ranking and versatility in the cage imply worthwhile speculation for those looking to maximize value through strategic bets.

Odds History and Sportsbook Insights

Tracking the odds history provides an insightful chronicle of how perceptions have shifted leading up to the fight. BetOnline.ag has shown some of the most dynamic changes in their odds from -155 to a current peak of -220 for Alvarez, reflecting how sentiment toward the favorite has solidified with time. This fluctuation highlights BetOnline as a responsive option for those attuned to market shifts.

DraftKings, another notable sportsbook, saw Alvarez’s odds initially flutter from 240 to a current -192, developing a clear pattern of trust in his superiority. Meanwhile, Benoit Saint Denis’ odds movement on DraftKings exhibited a journey from -298 to +160, reflecting variability in market expectation and engagement for the French contender.

Potential Payouts and Probabilities

For prospective bettors pondering on a $1,000 stake, these odds dictate potential outcomes distinctly. Should you back Alvarez and he clinches the victory, you stand to gain approximately $454.55 at current odds of -220, including your initial stake. Conversely, a winning $1,000 bet on Saint Denis, buoyed by his odds of +185, results in an impressive return of $1,850.

Betting odds serve as a prism through which fight probabilities are perceived. At -220, Alvarez’s odds suggest a dominant forecast from bookmakers, translating into a perceived winning probability of approximately 68%. On the other hand, Saint Denis with his +185 underdog odds reveals about a 35% chance of prevailing, according to betting analytic conventions.

Finding the Best Bet

For bettors looking to maximize their options, evaluating the vigor with which sportsbooks update their odds can influence decision-making. BetOnline.ag’s dynamic odds adjustments make it a worthy candidate for those seeking an agile betting environment.

Ultimately, the flexibility of odds and insights into their evolution create an engaging narrative for bettors and fight fans. The layers of betting opportunities offered by the Benoit Saint Denis vs Joel Alvarez bout make it not only a standout event in the UFC calendar but also a compelling venture in the realm of sports betting strategy.

Written byJackson 'The Sharp' Martinez