Winner: Melissa Mullins
Confidence Score: 69Melissa Mullins is the more well-rounded and efficient fighter based on the available stats and historical data trends. She boasts a higher significant strike accuracy (56% to 38%) and superior takedown defense (86% to 50%), which is crucial against a striker like Daria Zhelezniakova. Mullins' MMA style gives her more options to dictate where the fight takes place, and her #15 divisional ranking suggests she's already proven herself against higher-level opposition. While Zhelezniakova has a slight edge in striking defense (80% to 50%), her takedown defense and lower offensive output (significant strike accuracy, first-round finishes) can be exploited by a versatile opponent. Historically, fighters with Mullins' efficiency and defensive stats win a majority of similar matchups, especially when they can mix in takedowns or clinch work to offset a pure striker's rhythm. Mullins' experience and proven ability to finish fights early (3 first-round finishes) also increase her upside against an opponent who has shown vulnerability to submissions in her last fight. The pick is Mullins, but the confidence is moderate due to Zhelezniakova's reach, age advantage, and striking defense, which could keep the fight competitive if she maintains range and avoids grappling exchanges.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Melissa Mullins vs Daria Zhelezniakova can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.