UFC Baku: Sadykhov vs Motta Odds, AI Pick & Preview

Nazim Sadykhov vs Nikolas Motta fight analysis

Fight Overview

On June 21, 2025, lightweight contenders Nazim Sadykhov and Nikolas Motta will collide in what promises to be an electrifying encounter at the Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. Slated for the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr., this bout is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM UTC, serving as a pivotal matchup on a card headlined by two elite light heavyweights. Both fighters bring contrasting styles, records and momentum into the cage, making this one of the most intriguing lightweight scraps on the summer schedule.

Venue & Timing

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Hill vs Rountree Jr.
• Date: Saturday, June 21, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM UTC (approx. 11:00 PM local Baku time)
• Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
• Card Position: Main Card

This fight kicks off the evening’s action after the prelims, giving fans front-row access to high-octane striking exchanges, grappling showcases, and a stylistic contrast that could shape both men’s trajectories in the loaded Lightweight Division.

Betting Landscape: Favorite vs. Underdog

• Favorite:

  • Nazim Sadykhov is installed as the clear favorite, opening at −280 with Caesars and moving to −375 at BetOnline.ag. His outstanding 63% takedown accuracy, paired with a well-rounded finishing repertoire (7 KOs, 2 submissions), makes him a substantial pick for bettors who expect him to dictate where the fight takes place.

• Underdog:

  • Nikolas Motta enters as the live underdog, priced at +230 (Caesars) and drifting out to +310 (BetOnline.ag). A pure kickboxer by trade, Motta boasts 10 knockout victories in his 15-win career and first-round finishing instincts (8 stoppages in Round 1). Despite a less proven ground game (0% takedown accuracy), his striking power and unpredictable aggression give him a genuine upset ceiling.

Why This Fight Matters

This lightweight showdown is more than just another spot on the Main Card. For Sadykhov (10-1-1), a win here cements his status as a top-15 contender, potentially vaulting him into ranked territory and setting up a clash with established names. Conversely, Motta (15-5-0) is looking to snap a two-fight skid and re-establish himself after suffering decisions and knockout losses in recent outings. Both men understand that a dominant performance in Baku could be the springboard to their first career breakthrough inside the Octagon.

With contrasting skill sets, compelling storylines, and tangible stakes on the line, the Nazim Sadykhov vs Nikolas Motta matchup is poised to deliver fireworks. Whether you’re backing the wrestler with submission versatility or the knockout artist looking for a sensational upset, this fight has all the makings of a highlight-reel encounter in the lightweight division.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nazim Sadykhov vs Nikolas Motta can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

The clash between Nazim Sadykhov and Nikolas Motta presents a fascinating stylistic showdown: the wrestling-based finisher versus the one-dimensional knockout artist. Below, we break down each athlete’s background, recent form and statistical strengths and vulnerabilities to give you the full picture ahead of their lightweight bout on June 21 in Baku.

Nazim Sadykhov Profile

Age: 30
Country: Russia
Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling

Career Snapshot (10-1-1)

• Wins by KO/TKO: 7
• Wins by Submission: 2
• First-Round Finishes: 4
• Average Fight Time: 9:45
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 47%
• Significant Strike Defense: 48%
• Takedown Accuracy: 63%
• Takedown Defense: 75%

Recent Form

• Feb. 15, 2025: Defeated Ismael Bonfim via TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage) — Round 1, 5:00
• Nov. 11, 2023: Lost to Viacheslav Borshchev by Majority Decision — Round 3, 5:00
• Jul. 15, 2023: Submitted Terrance McKinney (Triangle Choke) — Round 2, 1:07
• Feb. 18, 2023: Beat Evan Elder via TKO (Doctor’s Stoppage) — Round 3, 0:38

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Elite takedown accuracy (63%) allows him to dictate where the fight goes—most opponents struggle to keep the fight standing.
  • Well-rounded finishing arsenal: 9 of his 10 UFC wins have come by stoppage, including both TKOs and submissions.
  • Above-average striking output with 47% accuracy, making his ground-and-pound especially punishing once he levels his foes.
• Weaknesses:
  • Strike defense at 48% indicates he can be hit when closing distance, especially by heavy punchers.
  • Takedown defense (75%) is solid but not dominant—elite wrestlers or scramblers might reverse or neutralize his entries.

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Nikolas Motta Profile

Age: 32
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Kickboxing

Career Snapshot (15-5-0)

• Wins by KO/TKO: 10
• Wins by Submission: 0
• First-Round Finishes: 8
• Average Fight Time: 8:07
• Significant Strike Accuracy: 37%
• Significant Strike Defense: 56%
• Takedown Accuracy: 0%
• Takedown Defense: 82%

Recent Form

• Nov. 23, 2024: Defeated Hayisaer Maheshate via Unanimous Decision — Round 3, 5:00
• Jan. 13, 2024: KO/TKO win over Tom Nolan — Round 1, 1:03
• Nov. 18, 2023: Overturned loss to Trey Ogden (result changed post-event) — Round 3, 3:11
• Jun. 17, 2023: Lost to Manuel Torres by KO/TKO — Round 1, 1:50
• Sep. 17, 2022: KO/TKO win vs. Cameron Vancamp — Round 1, 3:49

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • One of the most dangerous punchers in the division with 10 KOs and 8 first-round finishes—he ends fights quickly when he lands.
  • Excellent strike defense (56%), able to slip and counter cleanly on incoming combinations.
  • Durable chin, rarely deterred once the pace increases.
• Weaknesses:
  • Zero takedown threat (0% accuracy) means he cannot keep wrestlers honest or pull opponents into firefights on his terms.
  • Below-average strike accuracy (37%)—he often misses wide, which can drain his gas tank and open him up to counters.
  • Relies solely on stand-up; limited ground game leaves him vulnerable if the fight hits the mat.

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Together, this profile sets the stage: Sadykhov will look to grind out the grappling and muzzle Motta’s power, while the Brazilian bomber will hunt the knockout early before the wrestler can impose his will. Fans and bettors alike should weigh these contrasting strengths and vulnerabilities when making their picks for this pivotal lightweight clash.

Odds and Odds History

Current Betting Lines

As fight night approaches, Nazim Sadykhov and Nikolas Motta have seen clear separation in the betting markets:

• Nazim Sadykhov
  • Caesars: −280
  • BetOnline.ag: −375
• Nikolas Motta
  • Caesars: +230
  • BetOnline.ag: +310

Sadykhov is installed as the heavy favorite, while Motta carries the underdog tag. The steep line gap (approximately 6:1 in American odds) reflects bettors’ confidence in Sadykhov’s wrestling pedigree and ability to nullify Motta’s power striking. Conversely, Motta’s explosive KO upside at +310 presents an attractive payout for risk-tolerant gamblers.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On:

• For favorite moneylines, BetOnline.ag currently offers the biggest edge at −375.
• For backing the underdog, BetOnline.ag again leads with +310.

Line Movement & Historical Swings

Tracking the progression of odds illuminates where public money—and sharp action—has flowed:

• Nazim Sadykhov (BetOnline.ag) opened around −275 on June 8, then shifted to −300, dipped further to −335, and sits now at −375.
• Nikolas Motta (BetOnline.ag) began at +235, ticked to +250, climbed to +275, and has now settled at +310.

These moves suggest significant early money on Sadykhov, pushing his line down by almost 100 points. Simultaneously, Motta’s number drifting from +235 to +310 indicates either correlated public lay on the favorite or contrarian bets on the underdog, rewarding those who backed Motta early with greater value today.

Payout Scenarios for a $1,000 Bet

If you had $1,000 riding on either fighter, here’s what you’d see at current lines:

• Bet $1,000 on Sadykhov at −375

  • Profit: ~$266.67
  • Total Payout: ~$1,266.67

• Bet $1,000 on Motta at +310

  • Profit: $3,100
  • Total Payout: $4,100

Clearly, Motta offers the much larger upside, while Sadykhov is the safer line with a modest return.

Implied Probability

Without bogging down in math, the moneylines translate roughly to:

• Sadykhov: ~79% chance to win
• Motta: ~24% chance to pull off the upset

These percentages reflect the betting markets’ collective expectations.

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When deciding your play, consider both raw return and implied probability. If you’re risk-averse and back the favorite, BetOnline.ag’s −375 is the sharpest line for Sadykhov. If you’re chasing value and believe Motta can land a fight-ending shot, +310 at BetOnline.ag offers the juiciest underdog payout. Whichever side you choose, understanding the line history and current spreads is key to making an informed wager.