Winner: Joaquin Buckley
Confidence Score: 56Joaquin Buckley enters this bout on a five-fight win streak, including recent KO/TKO wins over top welterweights like Colby Covington, Stephen Thompson, and Vicente Luque. He is in his athletic prime at age 30 and has shown improved defensive grappling (74% takedown defense) and striking volume. Buckley's power (15 KOs, 4 first-round finishes) and recent ability to finish elite strikers and wrestlers are notable. Usman, while still elite defensively (90% takedown defense, 52% striking accuracy), is 37 years old and has a lot of mileage from championship rounds. Historically, fighters in Usman's age bracket with similar fight mileage in the welterweight division have a declining win rate against surging, younger top-10 opponents. Both have equal reach, but Buckley's speed and recent activity give him a slight edge. Usman could win with wrestling and control, but Buckley's current form, finishing ability, and age trend make him the more probable pick in this matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Usman vs Buckley can be found on the Usman vs Buckley event page.