Winner: Michael Chiesa
Confidence Score: 69Michael Chiesa has a significant grappling advantage with 13 submission wins and a 49% takedown accuracy, compared to Court McGee's 26%. Chiesa's wrestling style and higher submission rate (13 vs. 7) align well against McGee, whose takedown defense (70%) is solid but not elite. Chiesa also finishes fights quicker (avg fight time 9:20 vs. 12:32), indicating greater finishing ability. While both are aging veterans and have recent losses, Chiesa's superior grappling and ability to control on the ground historically give fighters of his profile the edge over durable, decision-heavy fighters like McGee. McGee's striking defense is higher (61% vs. 55%), but Chiesa's path to victory is more reliable through grappling, and fighters with similar profiles to Chiesa have a higher win rate in this stylistic matchup.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Usman vs Buckley can be found on the Usman vs Buckley event page.