Winner: Mansur Abdul-Malik
Confidence Score: 73Mansur Abdul-Malik stands out as the more dynamic and dangerous finisher in this matchup. He is undefeated (8-0) with 7 wins by knockout and 6 first-round finishes, showing a high finishing rate and explosive power for the middleweight division. Abdul-Malik also possesses a significant reach advantage (79.5" arm reach vs Brundage's 72"), which historically correlates with a higher win rate in the division when combined with knockout power. His takedown defense (82%) is elite, which is critical against Brundage's wrestling base and 48% takedown accuracy. Abdul-Malik's striking defense (49%) is also better than Brundage's (43%), and his striking accuracy (54%) is on par. Brundage has struggled against strong finishers and top prospects, as seen in his losses to Bo Nickal (submission) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (TKO). While Brundage can be dangerous early, Abdul-Malik's youth (27 vs 30), reach, finishing ability, and excellent takedown defense give him a strong statistical and stylistic edge. Recent form and the historical success of undefeated, long-reach finishers in this spot further support the pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Cody Brundage can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Usman vs Buckley can be found on the Usman vs Buckley event page.