Winner: Cody Durden
Confidence Score: 82Cody Durden holds a significant edge in UFC experience, having fought higher-level competition since his 2020 debut. He has a much deeper record (17-7-1) compared to Jose Ochoa's 7-1, and his finishing ability is more well-rounded (6 KO, 6 submission wins, 9 first-round finishes). Durden's stats show a clear advantage in striking accuracy (46% vs 32%), takedown accuracy (48% vs 0%), and a proven ability to mix in wrestling, which is often a decisive factor at flyweight. Ochoa is young and promising, but his only UFC fight was a clear decision loss, suggesting he may not yet be ready for the grind and pace set by a veteran like Durden. Historically, fighters with Durden's experience, wrestling base, and finishing record have a high win rate against less experienced, one-dimensional finishers. Durden's age (33) is within the prime window for flyweights, while Ochoa (24) is still developing. Unless Ochoa lands something big early, Durden's pace, wrestling, and well-roundedness should carry him to victory.
Live odds
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