Winner: Oumar Sy
Confidence Score: 62Oumar Sy is an undefeated prospect with a significant reach advantage (7 inches in arm reach, 3.5 in leg reach) and is entering his prime at age 29, compared to Menifield's age of 37, where historical data shows a notable drop in win rate for older light heavyweights. Sy's 74% significant strike defense and 100% takedown defense are elite, especially when facing a power striker like Menifield, who relies heavily on early finishes. Menifield’s defensive metrics (49% sig strike defense, 78% TDD) are notably lower, and his performance against longer, younger, and more technical opponents has been inconsistent. Sy's finishing ability (7 first-round finishes) and his ability to win by both KO and submission make him a well-rounded threat. The data on similar matchups (undefeated, longer, younger fighters vs aging brawlers) favors Sy, but Menifield's experience and power keep this from being a high-confidence pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Alonzo Menifield vs Oumar Sy can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Usman vs Buckley can be found on the Usman vs Buckley event page.