Winner: Max Holloway
Confidence Score: 65Max Holloway is the pick due to his superior striking defense (59% vs 53%), higher takedown defense (83% vs 64%), and longer average fight time, which suggests better cardio and durability at high pace. While Dustin Poirier has more finishing ability at lightweight and a slight power edge, Holloway's volume, movement, and ability to avoid damage historically trouble fighters like Poirier, especially over longer fights. Holloway is also four years younger, which is significant at this stage in both fighters' careers. Historically, fighters with Holloway's style and age profile have a better win rate in similar lightweight matchups, especially when moving up from featherweight with proven durability and output. However, Poirier's power and experience at lightweight make this a close matchup, so confidence is moderate.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.