Winner: Rafael Fiziev
Confidence Score: 67Rafael Fiziev is the pick due to his elite Muay Thai striking, high-level UFC experience, and strong defensive wrestling. Fiziev's significant strike accuracy (52%) and power (8 KOs, 6 first-round finishes) make him a constant threat on the feet, while his 90% takedown defense and 57% takedown accuracy give him more paths to victory. While Bahamondes is on a hot streak with three first-round finishes in his last three fights and has a major reach and height advantage (7 inches taller, 4 inches more reach), his striking defense (58%) and lack of offensive wrestling (0% takedown accuracy) suggest he will have to win a striking battle against one of the division's best. Historically, fighters with Bahamondes' physical profile and recent form do well against aging strikers, but Fiziev's experience against elite competition, diverse striking arsenal, and proven ability to go deep into fights give him the edge. Bahamondes is dangerous early, but Fiziev's technical edge and fight IQ are likely to prevail over three rounds. This is a competitive matchup, but the data and style analysis favor Fiziev, though Bahamondes' size and momentum make it a closer call than the odds may imply.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.