Winner: Nikita Krylov
Confidence Score: 72Nikita Krylov is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter, with a significant edge in grappling and finishing ability. He has 16 submission wins compared to Bogdan Guskov's 3, and his average fight time is much shorter, indicating a high finishing rate (23 first-round finishes). Krylov's significant strike accuracy (55%) is higher than Guskov's (51%), and he also has a more established takedown game (38% accuracy) that Guskov does not possess (0% takedown accuracy). Historically, fighters with Krylov's combination of experience, grappling, and finishing skills outperform knockout-oriented strikers like Guskov when they can threaten with both submissions and strikes. While Guskov is dangerous early with his knockout power (14 KOs, 12 first-round finishes), his takedown defense (50%) is not elite, and he was submitted quickly by Volkan Oezdemir, showing a vulnerability Krylov can exploit. Krylov also holds a slight reach and size advantage (longer arm and leg reach), and has faced higher-ranked, more diverse opposition. The only concern is that both fighters are coming off a loss, but Krylov's style and history against similar opponents make him the more likely winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nikita Krylov vs Bogdan Guskov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.