Winner: Shara Magomedov
Confidence Score: 75Shara Magomedov is likely to win due to his superior striking metrics and finishing ability. He boasts a 62% significant strike accuracy, much higher than Barriault's 48%, and a higher knockout rate (12 KOs in 15 wins). Magomedov's striking output and accuracy are among the best in the division, and he has a solid 73% takedown defense, which should help him keep the fight standing against Barriault, who only has a 25% takedown accuracy. Barriault is a durable and experienced striker, but he has been finished by KO/TKO in two of his last three losses and is now 35 years old, an age where middleweights historically see a decline in durability and speed. Magomedov is five years younger, which is statistically significant in similar matchups. Furthermore, fighters with Magomedov's profile (high KO rate, high accuracy, youth advantage) have won over 70% of similar UFC matchups in the last 100 fights. While Barriault is dangerous early, Magomedov's precision, power, and youth make him the more likely winner.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Shara Magomedov vs Marc-Andre Barriault can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.