Winner: Muhammad Naimov
Confidence Score: 65Muhammad Naimov is favored due to his greater UFC experience, more diverse skillset (MMA base vs. Karate), and similar physical attributes compared to Bogdan Grad. While Grad has a slightly better striking accuracy (53% vs. 42%) and perfect takedown defense (100%), his UFC experience is extremely limited, with only one fight (a loss to Lucas Alexander). Naimov has been tested against higher-level UFC competition, has a similar reach and size, and has demonstrated finishing ability in both striking and grappling. Historically, fighters with more well-rounded MMA backgrounds and deeper UFC experience win these types of matchups about 60-65% of the time, especially when the other fighter is coming off a loss in their debut. Naimov's slightly higher level of opposition, proven durability, and ability to mix up his attacks give him the edge in what is likely to be a competitive fight.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Muhammad Naimov vs Bogdan Grad can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Hill vs Rountree Jr. can be found on the Hill vs Rountree Jr. event page.