Winner: Marvin Vettori
Confidence Score: 62Marvin Vettori is favored due to his durability, elite takedown defense (70%), and proven ability to go five rounds against top middleweights. While Brendan Allen is the more prolific finisher and has a strong submission game (14 wins by submission), his takedown defense (57%) and striking defense (46%) are notably lower. Vettori's own grappling is underrated and his takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where his volume and defense (57% significant strike defense) give him the edge. Both fighters are coming off losses, but Vettori has consistently faced higher-caliber opposition and is less likely to be finished. Historically, fighters with Vettori's profile (slightly older, more experienced, high-level defense) have a slight edge in similar matchups. However, Allen's submission threat and finishing ability keep this from being a high-confidence pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.