Nelson vs Magny Odds, Analysis & AI Pick – UFC 318

Neil Magny vs Gunnar Nelson fight breakdown

Event Details

The much-anticipated welterweight bout between Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny will take place at UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3, hosted at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. Slated for the early preliminary card on Saturday, July 19, 2025, fight fans can tune in via ESPN+ beginning at 8:30 PM local time. As part of an action-packed evening that culminates with Max Holloway’s trilogy clash against Dustin Poirier, this clash of styles promises to set the tone for what’s to come on the main card.

Introduction

In what might be the most technically intriguing match-up of the prelims, Iceland’s Gunnar Nelson (19-6-1) enters as the clear betting favorite, boasting -300 odds across major sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. Nelson, a high‐level grappler known for his enviable submission arsenal (13 career submission victories) and a sharp striking accuracy of 61%, looks to rebound from a unanimous decision loss to Kevin Holland in March. At 36 years old, “Gunni” remains a perennial threat in the welterweight division, leveraging a 52% takedown accuracy and 68% takedown defense to dictate where the fight takes place.

Standing across the Octagon is American veteran Neil Magny (29-14-0), who enters as the underdog with +230 odds. Magny, at 37, carries the UFC’s modern era record for most wins (29) and has faced a who’s-who of welterweights over his 12-year career. With an 80-inch reach advantage—eight inches longer than Nelson—and a well-rounded skill set (8 knockouts, 4 submissions), Magny is more than capable of keeping this fight at striking range and outworking his opponent. After a turbulent stretch that saw back-to-back TKO losses to Carlos Prates and Michael Morales, Magny will look to reestablish himself as a contender with a decisive performance.

Betting Landscape

• Favorite: Gunnar Nelson (-300) – DraftKings, FanDuel, BetOnline.ag
• Underdog: Neil Magny (+230) – Caesars, BetRivers, BetOnline.ag

Oddsmakers have shifted steadily in Nelson’s favor over the past two weeks, reflecting confidence in his grappling control and fight IQ. Magny’s +230 line, while enticing, underscores the challenge he faces against a submission specialist with a 61% striking accuracy and a league-leading 12 first-round finishes in his career.

Why This Fight Matters

This contest is pivotal for both men’s trajectories in the deep welterweight landscape. A win for Nelson could propel him back into the top-15 conversation and set up high-profile matchups against rising contenders. For Magny, breaking a two-fight skid is essential to maintain his UFC legacy and chase that elusive No. 1 contender spot. Expect a chess match early, with Nelson hunting for takedowns and submission openings, and Magny looking to leverage his range, volume striking, and veteran savvy.

Whether you’re siding with the slick Icelandic grappler or betting on the American workhorse’s reach and experience, Neil Magny vs Gunnar Nelson promises technical intrigue, high stakes, and definitive implications for the welterweight division. Don’t miss it.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Neil Magny vs Gunnar Nelson can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Gunnar Nelson: The Icelandic Grappler

Age: 36 • Country: Iceland • Fighting Style: Grappler

Background

Gunnar “Gunni” Nelson is a veteran of the Octagon who made his UFC debut in September 2012. Standing 5’11″ (71”) with a 72” reach, Nelson’s game is built around elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu and suffocating top control. With 13 submission victories in a 19-6-1 career, he has repeatedly showcased an uncanny ability to find chokes and joint locks from scrambles and guard.

Recent Form

Over his last five outings Nelson has gone 2-3, but his two wins by submission underline that his ground skills remain at peak form.

• Mar. 22, 2025: Loss vs. Kevin Holland – Unanimous Decision
• Mar. 18, 2023: Win vs. Bryan Barberena – Submission (R1, 4:51)
• Mar. 19, 2022: Win vs. Takashi Sato – Unanimous Decision
• Sep. 28, 2019: Loss vs. Gilbert Burns – Unanimous Decision
• Mar. 16, 2019: Loss vs. Leon Edwards – Unanimous Decision

Strengths

• Submission Prowess (68% takedown defense): Nelson has thwarted takedown attempts and reversed scrambles with ease, making him extremely difficult to control on the mat.
• Striking Accuracy (61% Sig. Strikes Landed): While not a pure striker, Gunnar picks his shots well, landing crisp knees and counters that set up his grappling entries.
• First-Round Finishes (12): Nearly two-thirds of his victories end in the opening stanza, highlighting his ability to seize early opportunities.

Weaknesses

• Striking Defense (49%): Nelson has been out-landed on the feet against volume strikers, leaving openings for crisp attackers.
• Activity Dips: With only three fights in the last three years, ring rust may be a factor against a high-pace opponent.
• Aging Fighter: At 36, Nelson’s recovery and cardio depth can be tested in prolonged wars.

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Neil Magny: The American Workhorse

Age: 37 • Country: United States • Fighting Style: Well-Rounded Striker/Wrestler

Background

Neil Magny debuted in the UFC in February 2013 and holds the modern-era record for most UFC wins (29). At 6’3″ (75”) with an 80” reach, Magny uses his length to pepper opponents with jabs and leg kicks, while his wrestling base allows him to dictate distance and pace.

Recent Form

Magny has alternated between highs and lows of late, entering this bout on a two-fight skid yet coming off a signature KO in January 2024.

• Nov. 9, 2024: Loss vs. Carlos Prates – KO/TKO R1 (4:50)
• Aug. 24, 2024: Loss vs. Michael Morales – KO/TKO R1 (4:39)
• Jan. 20, 2024: Win vs. Mike Malott – KO/TKO R3 (4:45)
• Aug. 19, 2023: Loss vs. Ian Garry – Unanimous Decision
• Jun. 24, 2023: Win vs. Philip Rowe – Split Decision

Strengths

• Reach Advantage (80”): Magny’s eight-inch reach edge over Nelson allows him to control the mid-range with jabs, leg kicks, and straight punches.
• Cardio & Durability: Averaging 12:16 fight time, he can comfortably push a high pace over three rounds and absorb shots.
• Versatility: With 8 KOs and 4 submissions, he can finish fights standing or on the mat.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (46%): Magny lands less than half of his significant strikes, opening himself up to counter-strikers.
• Takedown Offense (39%): Against a defender like Nelson (68% TD defense), his wrestling may struggle to materialize.
• Vulnerability to Power: Back-to-back first-round KOs suggest a susceptibility to heavy hitters early.

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Styles Clash & Key Takeaways

This bout pits Nelson’s grappling mastery against Magny’s length and durability. Nelson will look to close distance, secure takedowns, and hunt for submissions, while Magny must keep the fight standing, exploit his jab and leg kicks, and lean on his cardio to neutralize Gunni’s early-fight explosiveness.

Betting angles include Nelson’s ground control and submission upside versus Magny’s reach differential and volume striking. Whichever fighter can impose his game plan first—Nelson with takedowns or Magny with range—will likely emerge victorious in this pivotal welterweight showdown.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Overview

As of July 7, 2025, the betting market has firmly installed Gunnar Nelson as the heavy favorite and Neil Magny as the clear underdog in this welterweight matchup at UFC 318. Here’s a snapshot of the lead lines across major sportsbooks:

• Gunnar Nelson:

  • DraftKings: –350
  • FanDuel: –350
  • BetOnline.ag: –350
  • Caesars: –275

• Neil Magny:

  • DraftKings: +230
  • FanDuel: +255
  • BetOnline.ag: +285
  • Caesars: +225

Bold takeaways:

• Favorite: Gunnar Nelson (–350 at most books, –275 at Caesars)
• Underdog: Neil Magny (+230–+285, best underdog price at BetOnline.ag)
• Best Value to Back Nelson: Caesars at –275 (lowest juice on the favorite)
• Best Value to Back Magny: BetOnline.ag at +285 (highest payout on the underdog)

Line Movement & Odds History

Over the past two weeks, both fighters’ lines have seen notable shifts as sharp money and public bettors weigh in:

• Nelson’s Line:

  • June 23: –280 (BetOnline.ag)
  • June 24: –315 (DraftKings)
  • June 29: –290 to –285 (DraftKings, BetOnline.ag)
  • July 5–6: Drifted between –260 and –270 (BetOnline.ag)
  • July 7: Settled at –350 on multiple books

  Analysis: After an early-market tug-of-war around –285 to –315, heavy action on the Icelandic grappler pushed his line down to –350, reflecting growing confidence in his ability to control the fight.

• Magny’s Line:

  • June 24: +230 (DraftKings)
  • June 29: +235 (DraftKings)
  • July 5: Briefly peaked at +245 (BetOnline.ag)
  • July 5 (late): Dropped to +220 (BetOnline.ag)
  • July 6–7: Stabilized at +230 to +285

  Analysis: Magny opened as a +230 underdog, flirted with +245 when early support hit the favorite, then saw his line slip back as public bettors hammered Nelson, offering a slim window at +285 for value-seekers.

Potential Payouts & Implied Probabilities

If you’re putting down a $1,000 wager, here’s what you’d walk away with:

• Betting Gunnar Nelson:

  • Odds: –350
  • Best book: Caesars at –275
  • Payout on $1,000 at –275: $1,363 (profit $363)
  • Implied probability: ~73%

• Betting Neil Magny:

  • Odds: +230 to +285
  • Best book: BetOnline.ag at +285
  • Payout on $1,000 at +285: $3,850 (profit $2,850)
  • Implied probability: ~26%

These figures illustrate the risk/reward trade-off. Betting the favorite offers steadier, lower returns with a high implied win rate, while the underdog route means higher variance but the chance for a larger payday.

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Bottom Line: For bettors prioritizing value on the favorite, Caesars’ –275 price on Nelson represents the softest line. If you’re drawn to the upset potential, Magny at +285 on BetOnline.ag delivers the juiciest return. Watch for any late-week line shifts—especially if Magny training reports or Nelson weight-cut news surface—as these could uncover fresh edges before fight night.