UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev Odds, Analysis & Pick

Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev fight analysis

Introduction

Mark your calendars for August 17, 2025, when the UFC returns to the legendary United Center in Chicago, Illinois, for UFC 319. The main card kicks off at approximately 10:00 PM ET (2:00 AM UTC on August 17), but all eyes will be on the Middleweight Title headliner: champion Dricus Du Plessis defending his crown against unbeaten contender Khamzat Chimaev. This clash of styles pits the reigning champion’s well-rounded MMA arsenal against the Chechen-born striker-wrestler’s relentless pressure and flawless 14–0 record.

Venue & Timing

• Date: Saturday, August 16 (Main card begins ~10:00 PM ET)
• Location: United Center, Chicago, Illinois, USA
• Event: UFC 319 – Du Plessis vs Chimaev (Main Card, Event Stage 844)

The Odds: Favorite vs. Underdog

Oddsmakers across the board have installed Khamzat Chimaev as the favorite to dethrone Du Plessis:

• Chimaev: –190 (BetMGM) to –205 (BetRivers/DraftKings)
• Du Plessis: +160 (BetMGM) to +170 (DraftKings)

This pricing reflects confidence in Chimaev’s perfect 14–0 slate—six knockouts, six submissions, and nine first-round finishes—alongside his 59% striking accuracy and a spotless 100% takedown defense. Meanwhile, Du Plessis (23–2) enters as the underdog, despite carrying the middleweight belt and boasting a diverse résumé: nine knockouts, 11 submissions, and victories over the division’s elite, including Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland.

Why This Fight Matters

1. Title Implications

   • Du Plessis captured gold by outworking Strickland in February 2025 and solidified his reign with a brutal submission of Adesanya in August 2024. A win over Chimaev cements his status among the all-time greats at 185 lbs.
   • Chimaev, a top-three pound-for-pound threat (#14 P4P), has steamrolled every foe but has yet to taste championship gold. This is his baptism under the bright lights of a title bout.

2. Styles Make Fights

   • Du Plessis is a Swiss Army knife: he blends high-volume striking (49% accuracy, 54% defense) with suffocating grappling (50% takedown offense/defense). His average fight time stretches nearly 14 minutes, showcasing stamina and tactical adaptability.
   • Chimaev thrives on rapid finishes—over half in Round 1—and compresses opponents with elite wrestling. His frightening 47% takedown success and flawless defense make him one of the toughest match-up problems in MMA today.

3. Narrative & Hype

   • This battle pits the fearless challenger’s unbeaten aura against the champion’s seasoned acumen. Will Chimaev’s unstoppable momentum topple Du Plessis’s well-rounded skill set? Or will the South African’s experience and championship mettle prove too much?

As UFC 319 descends on Chicago, the MMA world braces for a seismic shift in the middleweight hierarchy. Whether you’re backing the undefeated Chimaev or riding with the resilient champion Du Plessis, this is a fight destined to define the division for years to come. Stay tuned for in-depth breakdowns, prop bets, and live coverage right here at UFCBetCompanion.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

Khamzat Chimaev: Background & Recent Form

Age: 31
Country: United Arab Emirates (Chechnya-born)
Fighting Style: Wrestler / Pressure Striker

Khamzat Chimaev storms into the Octagon with an unblemished 14–0 record, evenly split between 6 knockouts and 6 submissions. His last five outings illustrate his versatility and finishing prowess:

1. Submission win vs. Robert Whittaker (R1, 3:34)
2. Majority decision win vs. Kamaru Usman (3 rounds)
3. Submission win vs. Kevin Holland (R1, 2:13)
4. Unanimous decision win vs. Gilbert Burns (3 rounds)
5. Submission win vs. Li Jingliang (R1, 3:16)

Chimaev’s rise has been meteoric, but this marks his first World Title opportunity.

Strengths

• Finishing Instincts: 9 of 14 wins end in Round 1, showcasing relentless pace and punishment.
• Grappling Dominance: 47% takedown accuracy combined with a flawless 100% takedown defense keeps opponents guessing.
• Striking Efficiency: 59% significant strike accuracy ensures every shot counts.

Weaknesses

• Defensive Holes: 42% significant strike defense—Chimaev absorbs a high volume of strikes, which could be exploited by accurate fighters.
• Championship Experience: Despite elite wins, he’s untested under title-fight pressure and five-round pacing.

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Dricus Du Plessis: Background & Recent Form

Age: 31
Country: South Africa
Fighting Style: Well-Rounded MMA (Striking & Grappling)

The reigning Middleweight Champion carries a 23–2 record, with 9 KOs and 11 submissions. His patience and adaptability are on display over his last five fights:

1. Unanimous decision win vs. Sean Strickland (5 rounds)
2. Submission win vs. Israel Adesanya (R4, 3:38)
3. Split decision win rematch vs. Sean Strickland (5 rounds)
4. TKO win vs. Robert Whittaker (R2, 2:23)
5. TKO win vs. Derek Brunson (R2, 4:59)

Du Plessis has faced—and defeated—the division’s elite, underscoring his championship pedigree.

Strengths

• Cardio & Durability: 13:45 average fight time and two full five-round performances prove elite endurance.
• Striking Defense: 54% significant strike defense minimizes damage and counters effectively.
• Well-Rounded Arsenal: Balanced 50% takedown accuracy with 50% takedown defense makes him difficult to dictate wrestling exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Finishing Pace: No first-round finishes indicate slower starts; early pressure fighters could capitalize.
• Striking Accuracy: 49% significant strike accuracy means fewer strikes land compared to elite finishers.
• Takedown Vulnerability: A 50% takedown defense leaves openings for wrestlers to clinch or control.

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Head-to-Head Analysis

When contrasting the two:

• Pace vs. Patience: Chimaev’s “kill-or-be-killed” mentality clashes with Du Plessis’s measured, five-round approach.
• Grappling Battles: Chimaev’s perfect takedown defense tests Du Plessis’s 50% success rate; if Du Plessis cannot bring the fight to the mat, he must rely on his conditioned striking.
• Durability Test: Du Plessis has proven stamina in title fights, whereas Chimaev rarely exits Round 1—this could tip advantage in championship rounds.

This matchup is more than a style fight; it’s a chess match between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. Will Chimaev’s frenetic aggression overwhelm the champion early, or can Du Plessis weather the storm and extend into the later rounds? The answers lie in Chicago’s United Center on August 17, 2025.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Snapshot

As of August 4, 2025, the betting markets have firmly installed Khamzat Chimaev as the favorite and Dricus Du Plessis as the underdog for their Middleweight Title showdown at UFC 319. Here’s a look at the consensus across top sportsbooks:

• Khamzat Chimaev (Favorite)

  • BetMGM: –190
  • FanDuel: –200
  • BetOnline.ag: –185 (best price for favorites)
  • Caesars: –200
  • BetRivers: –205
  • DraftKings: –205

• Dricus Du Plessis (Underdog)

  • BetMGM: +160
  • FanDuel: +154
  • BetOnline.ag: +160
  • Caesars: +155
  • DraftKings: +170 (best price for underdogs)
  • BetRivers: +160

The gap between the lines is substantial: the favorite is firmly in the –190 to –205 range, implying roughly 65–67% win expectation, while the underdog sits between +154 and +170, implying 37–39% chances. If you’re seeking maximum value on Chimaev, BetOnline.ag’s –185 is the best ticket; for backing Du Plessis, DraftKings at +170 offers the juiciest return.

Line Movement Analysis

Tracking the odds over the past few weeks reveals some notable swings:

• Khamzat Chimaev: Opened around –170 on major books in mid-July, drifted into the –210 range on DraftKings by early August, then trimmed back to –185 at BetOnline.ag. The shift to –210 on August 3 suggested heavy early money on Chimaev, followed by a slight correction as Du Plessis support rebounded.
• Dricus Du Plessis: Began near +150 on BetMGM and DraftKings, dipped to +140 around July 22, then climbed as high as +180 on Caesars by July 31. This volatility indicates sporadic backing of the champion, likely after his dominant title run reignited confidence.

Overall, Chimaev’s line has been more stable—consistently favored, with only moderate adjustments. Du Plessis’s odds, however, have fluctuated by as much as 40 cents in the dollar, offering sneaky entry points for bettors willing to back the champion.

Payout Scenarios & Implied Probabilities

Let’s say you have $1,000 to wager:

• Bet $1,000 on Chimaev at –185 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Profit: Approximately $540
  • Total Return: About $1,540

• Bet $1,000 on Du Plessis at +170 (DraftKings):

  • Profit: $1,700
  • Total Return: $2,700

In plain terms, a winning thousand-dollar ticket on Du Plessis nearly triples your money, whereas backing Chimaev produces a solid half-your-stake profit. According to the market, Chimaev carries around a 65–67% implied probability, while Du Plessis sits near 37–39%.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Chimaev: BetOnline.ag’s –185 line is the sharpest for favorites.
• For Du Plessis: DraftKings’ +170 line yields the highest payout for underdog backers.

Whether you side with the undefeated powerhouse or the battle-tested champion, understanding the line movement and shopping for the best number is crucial. Keep an eye on late shifts as fight night approaches—especially if a sudden injury report or training camp buzz emerges. Good luck!