Winner: Carli Judice
Confidence Score: 75Carli Judice has significant physical advantages, with a 4-inch height, 6-inch arm reach, and 4-inch leg reach edge over Nicolle Caliari, which is historically a major factor in women's flyweight matchups. Judice's striking metrics are superior, with a 54% significant strike accuracy (vs. 42% for Caliari) and a higher knockout rate (4 KOs in 4 wins, all first-round finishes). While both fighters are early in their UFC careers, Judice's takedown defense (70%) is far better than Caliari's (0%), making it difficult for Caliari to implement a grappling-heavy game plan. Judice's striking output and defensive metrics suggest she can keep the fight at range and land the more effective shots. Historical data from similar matchups (fighters with reach/height advantages and strong KO rates vs. grapplers with low takedown defense) show a clear edge for the more athletic, accurate striker, especially in the UFC women's flyweight division.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.