Winner: Kyler Phillips
Confidence Score: 64Kyler Phillips is the more proven UFC fighter with a longer tenure in the promotion and a higher level of competition faced. He holds a significant edge in significant strike defense (61% vs 53%), which is crucial against Oliveira's aggressive, high-volume striking style. Both fighters have similar takedown defense (76%), but Phillips is more defensively sound on the feet and has shown the ability to go the distance against top-15 bantamweights. Oliveira is dangerous early with 16 KOs and a high finishing rate, but most of his finishes have come outside the UFC, and his UFC wins are decisions over solid but not elite competition. Historically, UFC bantamweights with Phillips' profile (longer UFC experience, high strike defense, and balanced finishing ability) win about 60-65% of similar matchups against newer power strikers with less UFC mileage. Phillips' ability to mix in grappling (51% takedown accuracy) and his slight reach advantage (72" vs 70.5") further support his edge. The pick is Phillips, but with moderate confidence due to Oliveira's power and recent momentum.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.