Winner: Rodolfo Bellato
Confidence Score: 67Rodolfo Bellato is 8 years younger than Paul Craig and has shown strong finishing ability with 7 KO wins and 4 submissions, and an impressive 62% significant strike accuracy. He also has a perfect 100% takedown defense in the UFC, which is critical against a submission specialist like Craig. While Craig is highly dangerous on the ground with 13 submission wins, his takedown success is low (21%) and his takedown defense is very weak (38%), making him vulnerable if Bellato chooses to mix in wrestling. Bellato's striking accuracy, youth, and physicality (slightly longer reach and heavier natural frame) give him the edge, especially considering Craig's recent struggles against younger, more athletic opponents. Historically, fighters in the light heavyweight division with Bellato's age, finishing rate, and strike accuracy have a strong win rate over older submission specialists with declining durability.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Usman vs Buckley can be found on the Usman vs Buckley event page.