Amir Albazi vs Tatsuro Taira Odds & Prediction

Amir Albazi vs Tatsuro Taira Fight Analysis

Introduction

On August 3, 2025, the Flyweight division’s elite collide at the state-of-the-art UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, when Amir Albazi (#4) squares off against Tatsuro Taira (#6) on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira. This pivotal matchup is set to start at 01:00 UTC (the evening of August 2 local time) and promises to deliver high-octane action across five scheduled rounds.

As the betting markets have already signaled, Taira enters as the clear favorite at -255 (BetOnline.ag), thanks to his explosive striking arsenal and near-flawless 16-1 record. Meanwhile, Albazi assumes underdog status at +215, carrying his relentless grappling pedigree and 17-2 resume into enemy territory.

Why does this fight carry so much intrigue?

• Rankings Clash: A top-five contender in Albazi challenges a surging Taira, who has methodically climbed to #6 by dismantling opponents with a blend of power and precision.
• Styles Make Fights: Taira’s striking accuracy (60 %) and knack for first-round finishes (8 in his UFC run) contrast sharply with Albazi’s jiu-jitsu foundation—he boasts nine submission victories and a 50 % takedown defense rate.
• Momentum and Redemption: Both men are coming off pivotal losses—Taira’s split-decision defeat to Brandon Royval and Albazi’s unanimous decision setback against former champion Brandon Moreno. Each fighter is highly motivated to stave off another loss and reinstate themselves in the Flyweight title picture.

Key Details at a Glance

• Event: UFC Fight Night – Albazi vs Taira
• Date & Time: August 3, 2025, at 01:00 UTC (Main Card)
• Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
• Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lb)
• Rankings:
  • Amir Albazi – #4
  • Tatsuro Taira – #6
• Betting Odds (H2H, BetOnline.ag):
  • Taira: -255 (Favorite)
  • Albazi: +215 (Underdog)

In this bout, the seasoned veteran Albazi (31 years old) will attempt to neutralize Taira’s lightning-fast striking with his patented ground game, where he has secured five knockouts and nine submissions in 19 pro contests. On the other side, the 25-year-old Taira will look to unleash his southpaw power and explosive takedown offense (44 % accuracy) to keep Albazi at bay and rack up another highlight-reel finish.

With both fighters boasting first-round finishes, dynamic skill sets, and a shared desire to rebound from recent losses, this Flyweight showdown is poised to be a must-watch battle for fans and bettors alike. In the sections that follow, we’ll break down each competitor’s strengths, weaknesses, historical performance metrics, and tactical approaches—equipping you with the insights needed to make an informed pick.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Amir Albazi vs Tatsuro Taira can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Taira vs Park can be found on the Taira vs Park event page.

Matchup & Individual Profiles

Quick Matchup Snapshot

On August 3, 2025, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, #4-ranked Amir Albazi squares off against #6-ranked Tatsuro Taira in a pivotal Flyweight clash. Albazi, the 31-year-old Iraqi jiu-jitsu specialist, enters as the underdog at +215 (BetOnline.ag), while Taira, the 25-year-old Japanese striker, is the favorite at –255. Both men bring contrasting styles and similar recent form (4-1 over their last five outings), setting the stage for a classic striker-vs-grappler showdown.

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Amir Albazi Profile

Background & Style

• Age: 31
• Country: Iraq (Baghdad)
• Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist
• Height / Reach: 65" / 68"
• UFC Debut: July 18, 2020

Overall Record: 17-2-0

• Wins by Submission: 9 (53%)
• Wins by KO/TKO: 5 (29%)
• First-Round Finishes: 9

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

• 2024-11-02: Loss vs Brandon Moreno – Decision (Unanimous)
• 2023-06-03: Win vs Kai Kara France – Decision (Split)
• 2022-12-17: Win vs Alessandro Costa – KO/TKO (R3, 2:13)
• 2022-08-20: Win vs Francisco Figueiredo – Submission (R1, 4:34)
• 2021-01-23: Win vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov – Decision (UD)

Key Strengths

• Elite Grappling: Nine submissions highlight his ability to impose ground control and finish fights once he closes distance.
• Defensive Metrics: 62% significant strike defense and 50% takedown defense indicate proficiency at neutralizing opponents’ offense.
• Finishing Instinct: With over half his wins ending in the first round, Albazi can capitalize early when he lands key entries.

Areas for Concern

• Striking Output: 35% striking accuracy suggests he may struggle to land telling punches in stand-up exchanges.
• Takedown Offense: At 32% takedown accuracy, he may find it difficult to secure grappling exchanges against elite wrestlers.
• Average Fight Time: 14:25 – fights tend to go deep, leaving more room for strategic missteps if he fails to finish early.

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Tatsuro Taira Profile

Background & Style

• Age: 25
• Country: Japan
• Fighting Style: Dynamic southpaw striker (versatile in range and angles)
• Height / Reach: 67" / 70"
• UFC Debut: April 30, 2022

Overall Record: 16-1-0

• Wins by Submission: 7 (44%)
• Wins by KO/TKO: 5 (31%)
• First-Round Finishes: 8

Recent Form (Last 5 Bouts)

• 2024-10-12: Loss vs Brandon Royval – Decision (Split)
• 2024-06-15: Win vs Alex Perez – KO/TKO (R2, 2:59)
• 2023-12-09: Win vs Carlos Hernandez – KO/TKO (R2, 0:55)
• 2023-07-08: Win vs Edgar Chairez – Decision (Unanimous)
• 2023-02-05: Win vs Jesus Aguilar – Submission (R1, 4:20)

Key Strengths

• Striking Prowess: 60% significant strike accuracy combined with creative angles make him a constant threat on the feet.
• Finishing Versatility: Eight first-round stoppages show he can end fights with punches or submissions early.
• Takedown Arsenal: 44% takedown accuracy allows him to mix levels—keeping opponents guessing between strikes and trips.

Areas for Concern

• Striking Defense: At 47% defense, he is susceptible to heavy hitters who can catch him in exchanges.
• Takedown Defense: 45% indicates vulnerability when pressured by wrestlers or grapplers, potentially inviting ground work.
• Experience Gap: Three UFC seasons of experience less than Albazi could factor into deep-round strategy and fight IQ.

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This blend of styles—Albazi’s patient grappling acumen versus Taira’s fast-paced, precise striking—creates a dynamic chess match. Albazi aims to drag the bout into deep waters and deploy his submission game, while Taira must leverage range, speed, and defensive lapses to keep the fight upright and score a stoppage.

Betting Odds & Line Movement

Current Odds Summary

As of July 21, 2025, Tatsuro Taira sits firmly in the driver’s seat as the -255 favorite at BetOnline.ag, while Amir Albazi carries underdog status at +215. This pricing clearly reflects the betting market’s belief in Taira’s explosive striking and undefeated momentum, versus Albazi’s reputation for grappling mastery and potential to pull off an upset. If you’re shopping for lines, BetOnline.ag remains one of the top sportsbooks, offering consistently sharp odds and reliable payouts.

Key Takeaways:

• Favorite: Tatsuro Taira (-255)
• Underdog: Amir Albazi (+215)
• Best Book: BetOnline.ag (H2H lines, live updates)

Odds History & Line Movement

Tracking the line movements over the last 24 hours reveals a moderate shift toward Albazi, suggesting smart money or insider confidence backing the #4 contender:

• Tatsuro Taira
  • July 20, 16:40 UTC: –300
  • July 21, 08:00 UTC: –255

• Amir Albazi
  • July 20, 16:40 UTC: +250
  • July 21, 08:00 UTC: +215

This movement—45 cents on the favorite’s line and 35 cents on the underdog’s—indicates that a significant portion of wagers has been placed on Albazi since the lines opened. While this isn’t an earth-shattering swing, it’s enough to suggest that bettors see value in Albazi’s ground attack and championship-round experience.

Hypothetical $1,000 Bet Payouts

If you backed either fighter with a $1,000 wager at these odds, here’s what you’d collect:

• Tatsuro Taira at –255
  • Total Return: $1,392 (including your $1,000 stake)
  • Net Profit: ~$392

• Amir Albazi at +215
  • Total Return: $3,150 (including your $1,000 stake)
  • Net Profit: ~$2,150

Implied Probabilities

While we won’t dive into the math, these odds imply that bookmakers view Taira as roughly a 70–72% favorite to win, with Albazi hovering around a 28–32% chance. This gap highlights the perceived advantage of Taira’s striking pedigree and finishing upside versus Albazi’s more methodical, grappling-based approach.

What This Means for Bettors

• Value on Albazi? The line drift from +250 to +215 suggests that early bettors see an opportunity: if you believe Albazi can negate Taira’s stand-up and grind out a grappling victory, +215 offers solid return potential.
• Confidence in Taira? Despite the line shortening, –255 still demands a sizeable stake to chase a modest profit. If you trust Taira to dictate range and pace with his southpaw combinations, this is a reliable, though lower-yield, pick.
• When to Pull the Trigger? Keep an eye on live betting adjustments. If rounds one and two play out cautiously, the money line may shrink further on Taira or even tilt back toward Albazi.

Whether you’re favoring the Japanese dynamic striker or the Iraqi jiu-jitsu expert, understanding these odds, line movements, and potential payouts will help you make an informed bet on one of flyweight’s most intriguing matchups.