Winner: Malcolm Wellmaker
Confidence Score: 87Malcolm Wellmaker is undefeated at 9-0 with a high finish rate (5 KOs, 2 submissions, 5 first-round finishes) and a striking profile that is exceptional for bantamweight: 67% significant strike accuracy and 55% defense. He also has a significant reach and height advantage (3 inches taller, 3.5-inch arm reach, and 2.5-inch leg reach over Moutinho). His average fight time is just 2:29, indicating he is both efficient and dangerous early. Moutinho, while experienced, has struggled in the UFC, being finished by strikes in both of his UFC bouts and showing poor striking defense (29%) and no takedown defense or offense. Historically, fighters with Wellmaker's physical advantages, striking accuracy, and finishing ability have a high win rate over opponents with Moutinho's profile, particularly when the latter has a history of TKO losses and low defensive stats. Wellmaker's youth (age 30 vs. 32) and recent momentum further support this pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Usman vs Buckley can be found on the Usman vs Buckley event page.