UFC Dolidze vs Hernandez: Odds, Analysis & Prediction

# Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez Fight Analysis

## Fight Overview

The highly anticipated Middleweight showdown between **Roman Dolidze** and **Anthony Hernandez** is set to light up the UFC APEX in Las Vegas on **Saturday, August 9, 2025**, as part of the **Main Card** lineup. The bout is scheduled to begin at **11:00 PM ET**, headlining an action-packed UFC Fight Night from the fight capital of the world, Nevada. Both fighters bring distinct styles, impressive records, and high-stakes implications to this clash, making it a must-watch for MMA fans and bettors alike.

## Date, Time & Venue

- **Date:** Saturday, August 9, 2025  
- **Start Time:** 11:00 PM ET  
- **Venue:** UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States  
- **Event:** UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez (Main Card)

## Betting Odds & Contenders

Heading into this showdown, **Anthony Hernandez** is the consensus **favorite** across major sportsbooks. At press time, Hernandez carries odds of **-350** on Caesars, BetOnline.ag, DraftKings, and BetRivers, reflecting strong market confidence in his recent five-fight win streak inside the Octagon. His well-rounded skill set—highlighted by an impressive **64% significant strike accuracy** and **45% takedown accuracy**—has made him a formidable opponent for anyone in the Middleweight division.

Conversely, **Roman Dolidze** enters as the **underdog**, with odds hovering around **+275** to +295. Despite being ranked just one spot below Hernandez at **#8**, Dolidze’s journey has been marked by resilience and finishing prowess, boasting **8 first-round finishes** in his 18-fight professional career. His **8 knockout victories** and **3 submissions** demonstrate an ability to end fights decisively, even against top-tier competition.

## Fighter Profiles at a Glance

### Anthony Hernandez (Blue Corner)  
- Record: **14–2–0**  
- UFC Rank: **#9 Middleweight**  
- Style: **Striker**  
- Height / Reach: 72″ / 75″  
- Notable Wins: Brendan Allen (Decision), Michel Pereira (KO/TKO)  
- Key Stats: 64% Sig. Strike Accuracy, 67% Takedown Defense, Avg. Fight Time 09:47

### Roman Dolidze (Red Corner)  
- Record: **15–3–0**  
- UFC Rank: **#8 Middleweight**  
- Style: **MMA All-Rounder**  
- Height / Reach: 74″ / 76″  
- Notable Wins: Marvin Vettori (Decision), Kevin Holland (KO/TKO)  
- Key Stats: 43% Sig. Strike Accuracy, 33% Takedown Defense, Avg. Fight Time 12:24

## Why This Fight Matters

This matchup carries significant implications for the Middleweight rankings. A victory for **Hernandez** would solidify his place in the Top 5 contender conversation, potentially paving the way for a title eliminator. On the flip side, a win for **Dolidze** could propel him into the upper echelon of the division and set up a marquee bout against one of the division’s elite. With contrasting styles—Hernandez’s precision striking and takedown defense versus Dolidze’s finishing instincts and power—fight fans can expect a dynamic battle from bell to bell.

Stay tuned as we break down key statistics, recent performances, and betting angles for what promises to be one of the most electrifying Middleweight contests of 2025. Whether you’re wagering on the **favorite**, **Anthony Hernandez**, or looking for value on the **underdog**, **Roman Dolidze**, this fight is a defining moment in both athletes’ UFC careers.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Roman Dolidze vs Anthony Hernandez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dolidze vs Hernandez can be found on the Dolidze vs Hernandez event page.

# Matchup Breakdown & Fighter Profiles

## Anthony Hernandez Profile

**Background & Style**  
- **Age:** 31  
- **Country:** United States  
- **Fighting Style:** Striker  

Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez has steadily carved out a reputation as one of the most dynamic strikers in the UFC’s Middleweight division. With a professional record of **14–2–0**, Hernandez boasts a finely tuned stand-up game built on crisp combinations, power shots, and surprisingly slick submission chops.

**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)**  
- **Feb. 22, 2025 vs. Brendan Allen** – Win by Unanimous Decision  
- **Oct. 19, 2024 vs. Michel Pereira** – Win by KO/TKO (Round 5, 2:22)  
- **Feb. 17, 2024 vs. Roman Kopylov** – Win by Submission (Round 2, 3:23)  
- **May 20, 2023 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan** – Win by KO/TKO (Round 3, 1:01)  
- **Sep. 17, 2022 vs. Marc-André Barriault** – Win by Submission (Round 3, 1:53)  

Hernandez is riding an impressive **five-fight win streak**, punctuated by two head-kick finishes and a grappling showcase against Kopylov. He has proven equally comfortable trading leather in the pocket and combating pressure fighters on the ground.

**Strengths**  
- **Significant Strike Accuracy (64%)** – Among the highest in the division, Hernandez lands over six of every ten power shots he throws.  
- **Takedown Defense (67%)** – He thwarts two-thirds of all takedown attempts, neutralizing wrestlers and forcing fights to remain standing.  
- **Submission Savvy** – With **8 submission wins**, he’s more than just a knockout artist; his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is a threat if the bout hits the mat.  

**Weaknesses**  
- **Significant Strike Defense (46%)** – Less than half of opponents’ strikes are managed, leaving him vulnerable to high-volume strikers.  
- **Takedown Offense (45%)** – While competent, he lacks the wrestling consistency of top grapplers, limiting his ability to dictate where the fight goes.

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## Roman Dolidze Profile

**Background & Style**  
- **Age:** 36  
- **Country:** Georgia  
- **Fighting Style:** MMA All-Rounder  

Roman Dolidze brings an eclectic arsenal born from a sambo and wrestling foundation, augmented by dangerous power in both hands. At **74 inches tall** with a **76-inch reach**, Dolidze uses his length to land crunchy leg kicks and thudding overhands.

**Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)**  
- **Mar. 15, 2025 vs. Marvin Vettori** – Win by Unanimous Decision  
- **Oct. 5, 2024 vs. Kevin Holland** – Win by KO/TKO (Round 1, 5:00)  
- **Jun. 29, 2024 vs. Anthony Smith** – Win by Unanimous Decision  
- **Feb. 3, 2024 vs. Nassourdine Imavov** – Loss by Majority Decision  
- **Mar. 18, 2023 vs. Marvin Vettori** – Loss by Unanimous Decision  

Dolidze has rebounded from two narrow decision losses to earn three straight victories, including a statement KO of Holland and a tactical dismantling of former title challenger Vettori.

**Strengths**  
- **Finishing Rate** – With **8 first-round finishes**, Dolidze ends nearly half his fights early. His **8 KO wins** underscore legitimate one-punch knockout power.  
- **Cardio & Durability** – Averaging **12:24** per fight, he remains active into deep waters and has never been finished in the UFC.  
- **Versatility** – Comfortable mixing takedowns, clinch work, and stand-up, he poses multi-dimensional threats.

**Weaknesses**  
- **Takedown Defense (33%)** – He succumbs to two-thirds of takedown attempts, leaving openings for wrestling-heavy opponents.  
- **Significant Strike Accuracy (43%)** – Below division average; he must work harder to land volume against elite strikers.  
- **Striking Defense (50%)** – Exposing him to counter-punchers and opportunistic technicians.

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This stylistic contrast—Hernandez’s pinpoint striking and takedown denial versus Dolidze’s finishing instincts and all‐round threat—sets the stage for a compelling tactical chess match at UFC APEX. Both athletes know that a win propels them closer to a title eliminator, making every exchange and positional battle vitally important.

# Betting Odds & Line Movement

## Current Odds Overview

Heading into **UFC APEX** on August 9, 2025, the consensus across major sportsbooks firmly positions **Anthony Hernandez** as the **favorite** and **Roman Dolidze** as the **underdog**:

- **Anthony Hernandez (Favorite)**  
  - Caesars: **-350**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **-350**  
  - DraftKings: **-375**  
  - BetRivers: **-375**  

- **Roman Dolidze (Underdog)**  
  - Caesars: **+275**  
  - BetOnline.ag: **+285**  
  - DraftKings: **+295**  
  - BetRivers: **+275**  

On average, Hernandez sits around **-360**, while Dolidze checks in near **+283**—a substantial gap that underscores the betting public’s expectation of a Hernandez victory.

## Line Movement & Historical Swings

A review of the **odds history** reveals meaningful shifts over the past week:

- **Anthony Hernandez**  
  - At BetOnline.ag, Hernandez opened near **-250** on July 25, then slid steadily to **-350** by July 27.  
  - DraftKings mirrored that movement, drifting from **-345** (July 26) to **-375** (July 28).  

- **Roman Dolidze**  
  - Conversely, Dolidze opened at **+210** on BetOnline.ag (July 25) but has been pushed out to **+285** by July 27.  
  - DraftKings’ line climbed from **+275** (July 26) to **+295** (July 28).  

These swings indicate **sharps** and casual bettors alike have been piling on **Hernandez**, driving his odds down and inflating Dolidze’s underdog status. The most dramatic movement was on BetOnline.ag for both fighters, suggesting significant early money on Hernandez.

## Payout & Implied Probabilities

If you’re sizing up a **$1,000 wager**, here’s what you’d stand to win and the implied chances:

- **Betting $1,000 on Hernandez (-350)**  
  - **Payout:** Approximately **$1,286** returned (your $1,000 stake + $286 profit)  
  - **Implied Win Probability:** Roughly **77–78%**

- **Betting $1,000 on Dolidze (+295)**  
  - **Payout:** Approximately **$3,950** returned (your $1,000 stake + $2,950 profit)  
  - **Implied Win Probability:** Roughly **25–26%**

Clearly, backing **Dolidze** offers a much larger payday but comes with a slim implied chance, whereas **Hernandez** commands strong market confidence at the cost of a smaller return.

## Best Sportsbook for Value

- For **favorites**, **Caesars** and **BetOnline.ag** currently share the best line on **Hernandez** at **-350**—the smallest juice you’ll find.  
- For **underdog value**, **DraftKings** leads the way with **+295** on **Dolidze**, maximizing your potential payout if he pulls off the upset.

## Takeaway

The ongoing **line movement** tells a clear story: late money is flowing heavy on **Anthony Hernandez** as the safer bet, while **Roman Dolidze** drifts further into underdog territory. Whether you’re chasing a big score on the +295 upset or locking in the -350 favorite, understanding these odds—and where to get the best price—can make all the difference in your fight-night bankroll strategy.