Winner: Ateba Gautier
Confidence Score: 82Ateba Gautier has significant advantages in both physical attributes and recent performance metrics. He is 8 years younger, has a 2-inch height advantage, a 4-inch arm reach, and a 2-inch leg reach over Robert Valentin. Gautier is a powerful striker with a 65% significant strike accuracy and a strong 52% strike defense, compared to Valentin's 59% accuracy but just 23% strike defense. Gautier's finishing ability is notable, with 6 of 7 wins by knockout and 5 first-round finishes, while Valentin relies heavily on submissions and has been less effective defensively on the feet. Gautier's takedown defense (91%) is elite, which negates Valentin's main submission threat, especially since Valentin has 0% takedown accuracy. Additionally, Valentin's recent UFC form includes two consecutive losses, one by KO/TKO, suggesting vulnerability against powerful strikers. Historically, fighters with Gautier's profile—young, long, accurate, and defensively sound strikers—have a high win rate against older, submission-oriented opponents with poor striking defense. All these factors point to Gautier as the clear favorite.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.