Winner: Gerald Meerschaert
Confidence Score: 62Gerald Meerschaert has a massive submission edge with 29 career submission wins and a proven ability to finish high-level opponents on the ground. While Michal Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous first-round striker with 15 knockouts and a high significant strike accuracy (51%), he has repeatedly struggled against strong grapplers, as shown by his recent first-round submission losses to Kevin Holland and Michel Pereira. Meerschaert's reach advantage (77.5" vs 74") and his experience against a higher level of competition, combined with Oleksiejczuk's sub-50% takedown defense, suggest that if this fight leaves the first round, Meerschaert's grappling should take over. Historically, fighters with Meerschaert's submission profile and reach advantage at middleweight win a majority of these stylistic matchups, especially against aggressive but defensively flawed strikers. The main risk is Meerschaert's age (37) and chin durability, but stylistically, he is a tough matchup for Oleksiejczuk.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.