Winner: Karine Silva
Confidence Score: 70Karine Silva is a dynamic finisher with 17 of her 18 wins coming by stoppage (9 KO, 8 submission), and she has an extremely high rate of first-round finishes (13). Her aggressive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu style and 50% takedown accuracy make her a constant threat, especially against opponents with weaker grappling defense. While JJ Aldrich is a durable, technical striker with strong defensive stats (61% significant strike defense, 68% takedown defense), she lacks finishing ability (0 submission wins) and has a much longer average fight time, indicating she's less likely to put Silva away early. Historically, fighters with Silva's finishing profile, age, and grappling pedigree have a strong success rate in similar women's flyweight matchups, particularly against volume-based strikers like Aldrich. Silva's vulnerability is her own takedown defense (0%), but Aldrich is not a strong offensive wrestler. Given Silva's rapid finishing ability and Aldrich's tendency to go to decisions, Silva's explosiveness and submission threat are likely to be the deciding factors.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Karine Silva vs JJ Aldrich can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.