Winner: Chase Hooper
Confidence Score: 62Chase Hooper's grappling-centric style is a strong matchup advantage against Alexander Hernandez, who has a solid but not elite takedown defense (72%). Hooper is younger (25 vs 32), has a significant reach advantage (74" arm, 41" leg vs 72"/39.5"), and is in strong form with a 16-3-1 record and 8 submission wins. Hernandez is a tough, experienced opponent with a well-rounded game and better striking defense (57% vs Hooper's 39%), but he has struggled against high-level grapplers in the past and his offensive output has plateaued. Historically, younger, longer grapplers with Hooper's finishing ability have had a slight edge over older, more well-rounded fighters in similar lightweight matchups. Hooper's recent improvements in striking accuracy (52%) also suggest he can hold his own on the feet long enough to get the fight to his world-class grappling, where he has a clear path to victory.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.