Jessica Andrade vs Lupita Godinez Fight Odds & AI Pick

Jessica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez Fight Analysis

Introduction

Mark your calendars for August 17, 2025, because the women’s strawweight division heats up on the Preliminary Card of UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev, live from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. This pivotal clash between #9-ranked Jessica Andrade and #11-ranked Lupita “Loopy” Godinez promises fireworks across three five-minute rounds, as both veterans look to solidify their presence in one of the most competitive divisions in the sport.

When and Where

• Event: UFC 319 – Du Plessis vs Chimaev
• Date: Saturday, August 17, 2025
• Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL, United States
• Card Position: Preliminary Card (aired early, leading into the main and televised prelims)

Fans around the world will tune in via ESPN+ (U.S.) and BT Sport (U.K.), with the prelims kicking off late afternoon local time. This strawweight showdown is slated as one of the key undercard attractions, offering high-paced action featuring two fighters who excel in both striking and grappling.

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

Lupita “Loopy” Godinez enters as the favorite, with sharp money at roughly -270 (BetRivers: -278, FanDuel: -265, DraftKings: -258). The Mexican contender has quietly climbed to #11 with a 13-5-0 record, showcasing a 49% significant strike accuracy, stout 61% strike defense, and an impressive 81% takedown defense. Godinez’s wrestling base and scrappy grappling have frustrated high-level opponents, earning back-to-back unanimous decision wins (most recently over Julia Polastri) after narrow losses to Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba.

On the other side, Jessica Andrade is the clear underdog at approximately +210 (BetRivers: +210, FanDuel: +200, DraftKings: +210). The former strawweight title challenger carries a formidable 26-14-0 career ledger, featuring 10 knockouts, 8 submissions, and 11 first-round finishes. Known for her relentless pressure and heavy hands, Andrade brings over a decade of UFC experience—and a patented Muay Thai assault—to the cage. Her 50% striking accuracy, 55% takedown success, and 72% takedown defense make her a dual-threat who can turn a fight in an instant.

Stakes and Storylines

• Andrade’s Resurgence: After back-to-back defeats (to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Natalia Silva), “Bate Estaca” is desperate to remind the division why she’s been a perennial contender since her 2013 debut. A win here could catapult her back into Top 5 contention.
• Godinez’s Momentum: Riding a two-fight win streak, “Loopy” aims to break into the Top 10. Victory over a former title challenger like Andrade would be her biggest scalp yet and strengthen her claim for higher-profile matchups.
• Styles Make Fights: Andrade’s power striking versus Godinez’s volume and wrestling creates a classic striker vs. grappler narrative. Will Andrade land the fight-ending bomb, or can Godinez smother and outwork her with clinch control and takedowns?

As fight night approaches, bettors and fans alike will weigh Andrade’s explosive finishing threat against Godinez’s technical wrestling and cardio. Read on for a detailed breakdown of each athlete’s strengths, weaknesses, and key tactical battles that could decide this high-stakes strawweight showdown.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Jessica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.

Matchup Overview and Fighter Profiles

Lupita “Loopy” Godinez

Background

• Age: 31
• Country: Mexico (Aguascalientes)
• Height / Reach: 62″ / 61″
• Fighting Style: Grappling-heavy with improving striking arsenal

A relative newcomer to the UFC (debut Apr. 17, 2021), Godinez has rapidly climbed to #11 in the women’s strawweight ranks. Her wrestling pedigree and relentless pace have made her a handful for opponents who underestimate her ground control and cardio.

Recent Form

Godinez enters this bout with a 3-2 run over her last five fights:

1. Win (Mar. 29, 2025) – Decision (Unanimous) vs. Julia Polastri
2. Loss (Aug. 3, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous) vs. Mackenzie Dern
3. Loss (Mar. 30, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous) vs. Virna Jandiroba
4. Win (Nov. 11, 2023) – Decision (Split) vs. Tabatha Ricci
5. Win (Sep. 16, 2023) – Submission (Armbar, R2 3:38) vs. Elise Reed

Her two losses came against elite grapplers (Dern, Jandiroba), but she bounced back with a narrow split decision over Ricci before outworking Polastri in her latest outing.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Takedown Defense (81%): Among the division’s best at stuffing wrestling attempts.
  • Strike Defense (61%): Good head movement and footwork limit significant strikes.
  • Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 13:41 shows ability to maintain high output into championship rounds.
• Weaknesses:
  • Finishing Rate: Only 1 KO and 2 submissions on her 13 wins; lacks one-punch power.
  • Takedown Offense (47%): Effective defensively, but only lands about half of her own takedown attempts.
  • Striking Accuracy (49%): Solid but not elite—can be outstruck by higher-level strikers in close exchanges.

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Jessica Andrade

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: Brazil (Umuarama)
• Height / Reach: 61.5″ / 62″
• Fighting Style: Muay Thai base with aggressive power striking and gritty grappling

A veteran since her UFC debut in July 2013, Andrade is a former title challenger currently ranked #9. She is renowned for her explosive first-round finishes and physicality.

Recent Form

Andrade’s last five outings stand at 2-3:

1. Loss (May 10, 2025) – Submission (Armbar, R1 2:40) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
2. Loss (Sep. 7, 2024) – Decision (Unanimous) vs. Natalia Silva
3. Win (Apr. 13, 2024) – Decision (Split) vs. Marina Rodriguez
4. Win (Nov. 11, 2023) – KO/TKO (Body Shot, R2 3:15) vs. Mackenzie Dern
5. Loss (Aug. 5, 2023) – Submission (Arm-Triangle, R2 1:31) vs. Tatiana Suarez

Despite elite knock-out victories over names like Dern, Andrade has struggled with submission specialists and durable strikers.

Strengths & Weaknesses

• Strengths:
  • Power & Finishing: 10 KOs and 8 submissions in 26 wins; 11 first-round stoppages showcase her explosiveness.
  • Striking Accuracy (50%) & Volume: Constant forward pressure and heavy leg kicks that break opponents down.
  • Takedown Offense (55%): Effective mix-up ability to change levels and grind on the mat.
• Weaknesses:
  • Strike Defense (54%): Below-average defensive numbers—vulnerable to counterstrikes from precision fighters.
  • Takedown Defense (72%): Can be taken down by high-level wrestlers or smothered in the clinch.
  • Cardio Variability: Early-fight explosiveness sometimes fades in later rounds—opponents who drag fights into deep waters can edge her in decision scenarios.

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In this matchup, Andrade’s heavy hands and submission threats collide with Godinez’s grappling resistance and volume striking. Victory likely goes to the fighter who can impose her will—whether Andrade forces the finishing fight or Godinez drags the pace into deep waters and outpoints her.

Odds and Line Movement

Current Odds Summary

As of August 4, 2025, Lupita “Loopy” Godinez is a clear favorite across the board, while Jessica Andrade sits firmly in the underdog role:

• Godinez (Favorite)

  • BetOnline.ag: –225 (best favorite price)
  • DraftKings: –258
  • FanDuel: –265
  • BetRivers: –278

• Andrade (Underdog)

  • BetRivers & DraftKings: +210 (best underdog price)
  • FanDuel: +200
  • BetOnline.ag: +190

The gap between the juice on Godinez (risk $225 to win $100) and the payout on Andrade (win $210 on a $100 wager) highlights a 465-point swing in implied expectation. Godinez’s average line of around –257 suggests she carries about a 70% chance to win, whereas Andrade’s +200 to +210 odds imply roughly a 32% shot at victory.

Line Movement Analysis

A closer look at the odds history reveals a clear trend toward a more balanced market—money has chipped away at both sides:

• Godinez’s Odds Movement

  • FanDuel opened at –295 (7/31) and has shifted to –265—a 30-point drift toward Andrade.
  • BetOnline.ag started at –250 (7/24), ticked to –240/–241, and now rests at –225.
  • DraftKings moved from –285 (7/31) to –270 (8/3) to –258.

• Andrade’s Odds Movement

  • FanDuel eased from +220 (7/31) to +200.
  • BetOnline.ag softened slightly from +210 (7/24) → +205 → +206 → +190.
  • DraftKings drifted from +230 (7/31) → +220 → +210.

These shifts indicate sharp money on Andrade has forced bookmakers to shorten her line, while Godinez’s status as favorite has been trimmed back, suggesting increased confidence in an Andrade upset or balanced action on both fighters.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• Backing the Favorite (Godinez): BetOnline.ag at –225 is the sweet spot, minimizing your risk per $100 won.
• Backing the Underdog (Andrade): BetRivers and DraftKings both offer +210, yielding the best outright payout for a $100 wager.

Betting Scenarios and Payouts

If you laid down $1,000 on Godinez at the –225 line (BetOnline.ag), you’d pocket about $444 in profit—walking away with roughly $1,444 total. On the flip side, a $1,000 bet on Andrade at +210 (BetRivers/DraftKings) would net you $2,100, for a $3,100 total return.

• Godinez implied win probability: ~70%
• Andrade implied win probability: ~32%

Whether you’re chasing the favorite’s steadiness or the underdog’s juice, knowing where to shop for lines—and monitoring swingy movements—can make a real difference in your bottom line.