Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov UFC 318 Odds & Analysis

Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov fight analysis

Introduction

On July 20, 2025, fight fans will flock to the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, as the explosive middleweight showdown between Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov takes center stage on the main card of UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3. This clash pits two hard-hitting contenders—Costa ranked #13 in the division and Kopylov just a spot behind at #14—against each other in what promises to be a high-octane display of power, precision, and championship aspirations.

When and Where

• Date: Sunday, July 20, 2025
• Time: 2:00 AM ET (prelims begin earlier; this bout anchors the main card)
• Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
• Event: UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3, Main Card

The Favorite vs. The Underdog

Oddsmakers have installed Roman Kopylov as the clear favorite, currently sitting at –250 at Caesars, BetRivers, BetOnline.ag, and DraftKings. The Russian power-puncher has rattled off four knockouts in his last five outings, including a vicious third-round stoppage of Chris Curtis in January. With 12 of his 14 career victories coming by way of knockout, Kopylov’s precision striking and heavy hands make him a formidable test for anyone in the 185-pound division.

On the other side of the cage stands Paulo Costa, the Brazilian knockout artist and former title challenger, who enters as the underdog at +205. Costa’s résumé is built on raw aggression—11 of his 14 wins have come via KO/TKO, and he holds a staggering 9 first-round finishes. At 34 years old, he remains a threat to end the fight in mere seconds, and his 58% significant strike accuracy underscores his ability to back opponents against the fence and unleash devastating combinations.

Stakes and Storylines

• Momentum Swing: Kopylov has won two straight since his only submission loss to Anthony Hernandez in early 2024. A win over Costa would solidify his status as a rising contender.
• Redemption Quest: Costa is desperate to bounce back after consecutive decision defeats to Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker. A victory here could vault him back toward title contention.
• Power vs. Power: Both fighters prefer to stand and trade, setting the stage for a potential firefight. The question is whether Kopylov’s disciplined striking and takedown defense (87%) can neutralize Costa’s relentless pressure and 75% takedown accuracy.

As bettors and fans analyze the lines, the moneyline reflects more than just past results—it captures each fighter’s finishing prowess, durability, and tactical acumen. In this breakdown, we’ll dive deeper into key stats, betting trends, and strategic dynamics to help you shape your best pick for Costa vs. Kopylov at UFC 318.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Paulo Costa Profile

Background

• Age: 34
• Country: Brazil
• Fighting Style: Striker
• UFC Debut: March 12, 2017

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. June 1, 2024 – Loss vs. Sean Strickland (Decision – Split)
2. February 17, 2024 – Loss vs. Robert Whittaker (Decision – Unanimous)
3. August 20, 2022 – Win vs. Ruku Rotsukuhoruto (Decision – Unanimous)
4. October 23, 2021 – Loss vs. Marvin Vettori (Decision – Unanimous)
5. September 26, 2020 – Loss vs. Israel Adesanya (KO/TKO – Round 2)

Costa’s recent résumé reads 1-4 over his last five outings, revealing a downward trend since his title-shot against Adesanya. After shredding opponents early in his career, he’s struggled to impose his will against the division’s elite.

Strengths

• Power & Finishing Ability: 11 of 14 wins by KO/TKO, 9 first-round finishes
• Striking Accuracy: 58% significant strike accuracy – elite precision
• Offensive Grappling: 75% takedown accuracy – can mix levels and threaten on the mat

Weaknesses

• Strike Defense: 49% significant strike defense – susceptible to counters
• Cardio & Pace: Slows down in later rounds, has lost three decisions by striking margin
• Takedown Defense: 80% – serviceable but exploitable by high-level grapplers

Costa remains a dangerous finisher, but his defensive lapses and fading gas tank against top competition have left him 0-3 in decision battles since 2020.

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Roman Kopylov Profile

Background

• Age: 33
• Country: Russia
• Fighting Style: Power Striker
• UFC Debut: November 9, 2019

Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)

1. January 11, 2025 – Win vs. Chris Curtis (KO/TKO – Round 3)
2. June 1, 2024 – Win vs. Cesar Almeida (Decision – Split)
3. February 17, 2024 – Loss vs. Anthony Hernandez (Submission – Round 2)
4. September 16, 2023 – Win vs. Josh Fremd (KO/TKO – Round 2)
5. July 29, 2023 – Win vs. Claudio Ribeiro (KO/TKO – Round 2)

Kopylov is 4-1 over his past five, riding back-to-back victories and showcasing his explosive power. His lone recent setback—a second-round submission—was an outlier to an otherwise knockout-focused skill set.

Strengths

• Knockout Power: 12 of 14 wins by KO/TKO – heavy hands that end fights
• Strike Defense: 55% significant strike defense – better than average head movement and footwork
• Takedown Defense: 87% – strong sprawl-and-brawl ability keeps the fight standing

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense: 42% takedown accuracy – less efficient on the mat
• Submission Game: 0 submission wins – limited ground threats if taken down
• First-Round Finishes: Only 1 first-round stoppage – sometimes slow to open up early

Kopylov excels in the pocket, using accuracy (51% significant strike accuracy) and defensive discipline to wear opponents down before unleashing power. His vulnerability lies in grappling exchanges and a relative lack of early-fight urgency.

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Head-to-Head Outlook

• Power vs. Power: Both fighters pack heavy hands, but Kopylov’s higher strike defense (55% vs. Costa’s 49%) gives him a subtle edge in countering.
• Grappling Battle: Costa’s 75% takedown accuracy against Kopylov’s 87% takedown defense suggests Costa may struggle to implement his wrestling.
• Cardio & Pace: Kopylov’s average fight time of 11:21 indicates he can maintain output into later rounds, while Costa’s 12:32 average hints at a more measured pace—but potential gas-tank issues under sustained pressure.

This middleweight showdown pits a rejuvenated Russian knockout artist against a high-octane Brazilian striker seeking redemption. Their contrasting strengths and exploitable weaknesses promise a tactical battle laced with moments of violent excitement.

Odds and Betting Trends

Current Betting Odds

• Roman Kopylov (Favorite):

  • Caesars: –250
  • BetRivers: –245
  • BetOnline.ag: –235
  • DraftKings: –245

• Paulo Costa (Underdog):

  • Caesars: +205
  • BetRivers: +185
  • BetOnline.ag: +200
  • DraftKings: +200

Roman Kopylov is the clear favorite across all major sportsbooks, with Caesars and DraftKings both listing him at –250. Paulo Costa enters as a live underdog, peaking at +205 with Caesars and +200 elsewhere.

Best Sportsbook Value

• If you want to back Kopylov, the sharpest line is –235 at BetOnline.ag.
• For Costa, Caesars offers the top underdog price at +205.

Line Movement and Market Reaction

Roman Kopylov

• July 4 (BetOnline): Opened at –300
• July 4 (later): Checked in at –270
• July 5 morning: Sharpened to –240
• July 5 midday: Sharpened further to –205
• July 6: Jumped back to –250
• July 7: Settled at –235

Paulo Costa

• July 4 (BetOnline): Opened at +250
• July 4 (later): Improved to +230
• July 5 morning: Tightened to +205
• July 5 midday: Reached +175
• July 6: Drifted back to +200

This seesaw action shows early confidence in Kopylov drove his odds down sharply from –300 to –205, then smart money on Costa nudged the underdog line from +205 to +175. Late adjustments pushed both fighters back toward equilibrium ahead of fight night.

Betting Payouts for a $1,000 Wager

• Kopylov at –250: A $1,000 bet returns $1,400 (your $1,000 stake plus $400 profit) at Caesars or DraftKings.
• Costa at +205: A $1,000 bet returns $3,050 (your $1,000 stake plus $2,050 profit) at Caesars—the highest payout you can secure.

Implied Probabilities

• Roman Kopylov (–250): Implied chance of victory around 71%
• Paulo Costa (+205): Implied chance of victory around 33%

These probabilities reflect the market’s confidence in Kopylov’s consistency and finishing power versus Costa’s potential for a sudden knockout upset.

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When deciding where to place your action, BetOnline.ag offers the best upside on Kopylov at –235, while Caesars presents the juiciest return on Costa at +205. Keep an eye on any late money shifts—these lines have proven susceptible to sharp bets on both sides, indicating that savvy bettors are watching this middleweight scrap closely.