Fernandes vs Stoliarenko: UFC Fight Odds, Analysis & Pick

Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko fight analysis

Event Details

Date: Saturday, August 9, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM UTC / 4:00 PM ET / 1:00 PM PT
Card: Preliminary Card of UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada

Fight Overview

The women’s flyweight clash between Gabriella Fernandes and Julija Stoliarenko is set to kick off the preliminary card on Saturday, August 9, live from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Scheduled for the early evening slot (8:00 PM UTC), this five-round bout (three rounds, standard for non-title fights) promises to deliver fast-paced action as two of the division’s toughest grapplers square off.

In the lead-up to this matchup, Fernandes enters as a clear favorite on the odds boards. As of July 28, BetOnline.ag lists the Brazilian striker at –400 (American odds), making her a strong 80% implied favorite. On the other side, Lithuanian submission specialist Stoliarenko sits at +300, underdog status that reflects her uphill battle against a fighter with a more complete mixed-martial-arts arsenal.

Fighters at a Glance

• Gabriella Fernandes (10-3-0)
  • Style: Striker
  • Height/Reach: 66″ / 66″
  • UFC Debut: Feb. 25, 2023
  • Key Stats: 47% sig. strike accuracy, 50% sig. strike defense, 61% takedown defense

• Julija Stoliarenko (11-9-2)
  • Style: Submission specialist
  • Height/Reach: 67″ / 66″
  • UFC Debut: Aug. 8, 2020
  • Key Stats: 39% sig. strike accuracy, 46% sig. strike defense, 55% takedown defense

Favorite vs. Underdog

Fernandes has rapidly climbed the women’s flyweight ranks with a professional record of 10-3, showcasing crisp boxing, effective leg kicks and solid takedown defense. Her three knockout victories and three submissions demonstrate finishing ability both standing and on the mat. Conversely, Stoliarenko (11-9-2) is renowned for her Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree—boasting 10 career submission wins—and relentless grappling attacks. However, her recent UFC run has been uneven, alternating between spectacular first-round submissions and knockout losses.

With Fernandes controlling the center of the octagon and maintaining range, she presents a significant challenge to Stoliarenko’s takedown entries. Meanwhile, Julija will look to capitalize on any scrambling opportunities, seeking a quick transition to her trademark arm-triangle or heel-hook finishes. This stylistic contrast—precision striking versus high-octane submission hunting—sets the stage for a compelling preliminary feature.

As fight night approaches, bettors and fans alike will weigh Fernandes’ technical striking and home-camp advantage against Stoliarenko’s submission prowess and first-round finish rate. Expect fireworks in the octagon when these two flyweights collide under the bright lights of the UFC APEX.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dolidze vs Hernandez can be found on the Dolidze vs Hernandez event page.

Matchup and Individual Profiles

Gabriella Fernandes Profile

Age: 31
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Striker

Recent Form

• Nov. 23, 2024 vs. Wang Cong (Win – Submission, R2 3:49)
• June 15, 2024 vs. Carli Judice (Win – Split Decision, 3 Rds)
• June 17, 2023 vs. Tereza Bleda (Loss – Unanimous Decision, 3 Rds)

Since her UFC debut in February 2023, Fernandes has gone 2-1. She opened with a unanimous decision loss to Tereza Bleda but rebounded with back-to-back wins, including a razor-thin split decision over Judice and a slick second-round submission of UFC veteran Wang Cong.

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (47%): Lands nearly half of her significant strikes, reflecting crisp timing and precision, especially on the feet.
• Striking Defense (50%): Defends one in two opponent significant strikes, showcasing solid head movement and footwork.
• Takedown Defense (61%): Rarely gets taken down, allowing her to dictate the fight’s range and pace.
• Finishing Versatility: With 3 KOs and 3 submission wins, she can end fights standing or in grappling exchanges.

Weaknesses

• Takedown Offense (18%): Struggles to initiate successful takedowns, limiting her ability to mix up wrestling in her game plan.
• First-Round Finishes (1): Tends to start slow—only one first-round finish—so early aggression can catch her off-guard.
• Average Fight Time (13:27): Longer fights may indicate cardio management but suggest fewer early-fight knockouts/submissions.

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Julija Stoliarenko Profile

Age: 32
Country: Lithuania
Fighting Style: Submission Specialist (BJJ)

Recent Form

• Feb. 3, 2024 vs. Luana Carolina (Loss – KO/TKO, R3 4:52)
• July 22, 2023 vs. Molly McCann (Win – Submission, R1 1:55)
• Oct. 1, 2022 vs. Chelsea Chandler (Loss – KO/TKO, R1 4:15)

Stoliarenko’s UFC tenure has been a roller-coaster. After a spectacular first-round arm-triangle choke of Molly McCann, she suffered two knockout losses—one in the opening round to Chandler and another late in the third against Carolina.

Strengths

• Submission Prowess (10 career) & First-Round Finishes (10): Elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background, capable of ending fights instantly on the ground.
• Takedown Accuracy (28%): Effective at closing distance and bringing the fight to the mat, where she thrives.
• Average Fight Time (10:08): Indicates a bias toward quick finishes—dangerous early.

Weaknesses

• Striking Accuracy (39%) & Defense (46%): Below-average stand-up numbers make her susceptible to sustained boxing and leg-kick attacks.
• Takedown Defense (55%): Vulnerable if opponents chain takedown feints with level changes, allowing strikers to slip grappling attempts.
• Durability Concerns: Three KO/TKO losses in her last five bouts highlight a chin and defense vulnerability when pressured.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Range vs. Ground: Fernandes will look to keep the fight at kicking and punching range, exploiting her superior striking metrics. Stoliarenko must close the distance quickly to unleash her grappling toolkit.
• Pace & Endurance: A methodical Fernandes may aim for late-round takedown attempts or volume striking, while Stoliarenko hunts an early submission.
• Key Factors: Takedown defense will be pivotal—Fernandes’ 61% mark must hold up against Stoliarenko’s 28% accuracy if the Brazilian wants to control the octagon. Conversely, will Julija’s BJJ acumen overcome the endurance demands of a multi-round striking battle?

This clash of styles—precision kicking and punching against high-octane submission hunting—sets up a classic striker vs. grappler showdown.

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Current Betting Odds

As of July 28, Gabriella Fernandes enters the cage as a substantial favorite, listed at –400 (American odds) on BetOnline.ag. Her opponent, Julija Stoliarenko, sits firmly in underdog territory at +300. This gap underscores the market’s strong belief in Fernandes’ ability to control range, avoid takedowns, and outstrike her division’s submission ace.

• Gabriella Fernandes (–400)
• Julija Stoliarenko (+300)

Odds Difference & Underdog Status

With Fernandes at –400, bettors must risk $400 to win $100, translating to an implied win probability north of 80%. Stoliarenko’s +300 line implies a roughly 25% chance in the eyes of oddsmakers. The 100-point swing between –400 and +300 makes this one of the more lopsided flyweight matchups on the prelims, clearly establishing a favorite and an underdog with divergent payout scenarios.

Line Movement History

Tracking line movement over the past few days reveals noteworthy swings:
• July 25: Fernandes opened at –450, Stoliarenko at +350.
• July 28: Favorites have shortened to –400, while the underdog line has moved to +300.

This 50-point shift on both sides suggests action on both fighters—sharp money backing Fernandes to justify a smaller payout, and contrarian bettors grabbing juicier Stoliarenko odds. A narrowing favorite line often indicates strong confidence in the favorite, while a softening underdog line can reveal opportunistic wagering on potential big-value upsets.

Payout Scenarios for a $1,000 Bet

• Bet $1,000 on Fernandes (–400): You’d net $250 in profit, returning $1,250 total.
• Bet $1,000 on Stoliarenko (+300): You’d net $3,000 in profit, returning $4,000 total.

These payouts exemplify the classic favorite vs. underdog disparity—modest gains backing the chalk, versus a life-changing return chasing the upset.

Implied Probabilities (No Math Details)

• Fernandes: Implied to win roughly 80% of the time.
• Stoliarenko: Implied to win roughly 25% of the time.

Oddsmakers have spoken: Fernandes is heavily favored, while Stoliarenko appeals to risk-takers seeking a big payday.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

For this matchup, BetOnline.ag offers the most transparent lines and has updated its odds promptly as money streams in. Their –400 and +300 markets remain highly liquid, making them the go-to choice for both casual bettors and seasoned sharps looking to lock in these flyweight odds.

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This analysis of current odds, historical line movement, and payout scenarios gives bettors a clear roadmap: lay the chalk with Fernandes for a conservative bankroll builder, or swing for the fences on Stoliarenko’s substantial underdog price. Whichever side you choose, understanding these numbers will help you navigate fight night with confidence.