Winner: Movsar Evloev
Confidence Score: 85Movsar Evloev is undefeated at 19-0 with a proven track record against high-level UFC featherweights, displaying elite wrestling, strong top control, and high fight IQ. His stats are well-rounded, with a 61% significant strike defense and 61% takedown defense, making him very difficult to control or damage. He averages a full 15 minutes of fight time, indicating excellent cardio and composure over three rounds. In contrast, Aaron Pico is making his UFC debut and has no statistical data at this level, which historically is a significant disadvantage—UFC debutants facing ranked, undefeated opposition in the featherweight division have a very low win rate. Additionally, Evloev's reach, experience, and ability to stifle explosive athletes with wrestling and positional control further tilt the matchup in his favor. Unless Pico lands a rare early finish, the stylistic and experience edges heavily favor Evloev.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Movsar Evloev vs Aaron Pico can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.