Winner: Nassourdine Imavov
Confidence Score: 64Nassourdine Imavov is the higher-ranked contender and has faced and beaten top-tier opposition, including a recent win over Brendan Allen. Imavov's striking is sharp (56% accuracy, 7 KOs), and he has excellent first-round finishing ability (7 first-round finishes). His takedown defense (79%) is slightly better than Borralho's (77%), which is crucial given Borralho's wrestling/grappling focus. Imavov's average fight time is longer, indicating he can go deep into fights against high-level opposition. While Borralho is on a strong win streak and is statistically efficient (60% striking, 60% takedown accuracy), he has not yet fought the same level of elite strikers as Imavov. Historically, fighters with Imavov's combination of size, striking accuracy, and defensive wrestling at this level tend to edge out well-rounded grapplers like Borralho, especially when the striker has a proven record against top-5 middleweights. However, Borralho's consistency and ability to win decisions make this a competitive matchup, so the pick is Imavov, but not with overwhelming confidence.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.