Gustafsson vs Fakhretdinov UFC Odds & Fight Analysis

Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov fight analysis

Event Overview

On Saturday, September 6, 2025, fight fans around the globe will tune in to the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho, live from the iconic Accor Arena in Paris, France. The welterweight clash between Sweden’s rising prospect Andreas Gustafsson and Russian stalwart Rinat Fakhretdinov is slated to begin at approximately 17:20 UTC (19:20 local Paris time), serving as the perfect high-octane appetizer before the main card gets underway.

The Fighters at a Glance

• Andreas Gustafsson (12-2-0, 8 KOs, 2 Submissions)
  • UFC Debut: May 31, 2025
  • Hometown: Gävle, Sweden
  • Notable Win: Unanimous decision over Khaos Williams (Jun. 7, 2025)
  • Styles & Strengths: Exceptional striking accuracy (77% sig. strike accuracy), flawless takedown defense (100%), and a growing reputation for clinical stand-up.
• Rinat Fakhretdinov (23-1-1, 11 KOs, 6 Submissions)
  • UFC Debut: Jun. 4, 2022
  • Hometown: Mordovia Republic, Russia
  • Recent Form: Four wins in five UFC outings, including a first-round submission over Kevin Lee
  • Styles & Strengths: Well-rounded MMA toolbox, solid takedown defense (92%), and a balanced finish rate (13 first-round stoppages).

Betting Landscape: Favorite vs. Underdog

As fight night approaches, the oddsmakers have installed Andreas Gustafsson as the slight favorite, with money lines generally hovering around -115 to -123 at top sportsbooks (Caesars: -115; BetOnline.ag: -123). Meanwhile, Rinat Fakhretdinov enters as the underdog, trading at roughly +103 to +105 on the American odds board (BetOnline.ag: +103; DraftKings: -102, which actually flips him to slight favorite in select markets). This seesaw between sportsbooks underscores how closely matched these two competitors appear on paper—and how pivotal their respective styles will be when they collide.

Why This Bout Matters

• Styles Make Fights: Gustafsson’s pinpoint striking and unblemished takedown defense will be tested against Fakhretdinov’s wrestling pedigree and submission savvy.
• Momentum vs. Experience: The Swede’s meteoric rise—undefeated in his young UFC tenure—contrasts sharply with Fakhretdinov’s seasoned record across 25 pro outings.
• Pathway to Rankings: A victory here could vault either man into serious welterweight contention, making this more than just a preliminary spectacle.

Whether you’re backing the powerful precision of Gustafsson or banking on the veteran grit of Fakhretdinov, this Welterweight showdown promises fireworks—and meaningful stakes—on the Perimeter of the Accor Arena. Don’t miss the opening salvo of UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Imavov vs Borralho can be found on the Imavov vs Borralho event page.

Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles

Andreas Gustafsson: The Swedish Sharpshooter

Background & Physical Attributes

• Age: 34
• Country: Sweden (Gävle)
• Height / Reach: 73.0 in / 73.5 in
• Weight: 170 lb (Welterweight)
• Fighting Style: Primarily a technical striker with a solid wrestling base and relentless pace
• UFC Debut: May 31, 2025

Recent Form

• Undefeated in the UFC (1–0):
  • Jun. 7, 2025 – def. Khaos Williams by Unanimous Decision (3 rounds)
• Turned heads on the regional scene with an 11–2 record, showcasing crisp combinations and fight-ending power

Strengths

• Striking Accuracy (77%): Lands more than three-quarters of his significant strikes, overwhelming opponents with volume and precision.
• Takedown Defense (100%): Has never been taken down in the UFC, forcing fighters to engage him on the feet.
• Finishing Rate: 8 KOs and 2 submissions in 12 wins demonstrate multi-dimensional power and submission aptitude.

Weaknesses

• Significant Strike Defense (46%): Allows opponents to land nearly half of their significant strikes, potentially vulnerable to counter-strikers.
• Experience Level: Only one UFC bout to date; may face adjustment under big-stage pressure in hostile territory.
• First Round Finishes (3): Tends to open fast but can fade—average fight time 11:40 suggests possible cardio tests in deep waters.

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Rinat Fakhretdinov: The Russian All-Rounder

Background & Physical Attributes

• Age: 33
• Country: Russia (Mordovia Republic)
• Height / Reach: 72.0 in / 74.0 in
• Weight: 171 lb (Welterweight)
• Fighting Style: Well-rounded blend of wrestling, relentless pressure, and developing power striking
• UFC Debut: Jun. 4, 2022

Recent Form (Last 5)

1. Oct. 26, 2024 – def. Carlos Leal by Unanimous Decision
2. Jun. 22, 2024 – def. Nicolas Dalby by Split Decision
3. Nov. 4, 2023 – loss to Elizeu dos Santos by Majority Decision
4. Jul. 1, 2023 – def. Kevin Lee by First-Round Submission (0:55)
5. Dec. 17, 2022 – def. Bryan Battle by Unanimous Decision

Strengths

• Takedown Defense (92%): Suffocates grapplers and stalls takedown attempts, keeping fights where he wants them.
• Balance of Finishes: 11 KOs and 6 submissions show he can end fights standing or on the mat, backed by 13 first-round stoppages.
• Durability & Cardio: Average fight time 12:39 indicates he can maintain pace deep into three-round wars.

Weaknesses

• Strike Accuracy (53%): Less precise than elite strikers; may struggle against a pinpoint counter-puncher.
• Takedown Accuracy (34%): Relies on pressure and scrambles rather than a high-volume wrestling attack, potentially limiting ground control.
• Decision Reliance: Four of last five fights went to the judges—vulnerable to opponents who can neutralize his power and force a tactical battle.

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Head-to-Head Dynamics

• Striking Exchange: Gustafsson’s 77% accuracy vs. Fakhretdinov’s durable chin and balanced offense
• Grappling Chess Match: Both boast elite takedown defense, but Gustafsson may dictate where the fight takes place with superior wrestling sprawl
• Cardio & Fight IQ: Fakhretdinov’s mileage in 25 pro outings could edge out Gustafsson if the bout heads to deep waters

This clash of a rising striking phenom against a battle-hardened all-around grinder promises tactical intrigue and explosive moments in the welterweight twilight slot at UFC Fight Night Paris.

Odds and Betting Trends

Current Odds Snapshot

As of the latest update, Andreas Gustafsson is slotted in as the favorite, while Rinat Fakhretdinov carries the underdog tag—although the margin between them remains razor-thin.

• Andreas Gustafsson
  • BetOnline.ag: -123
  • Caesars: -115
  • DraftKings: -118
  • BetUS: -110
  • BetRivers: -113

• Rinat Fakhretdinov
  • BetOnline.ag: +103
  • Caesars: -105
  • DraftKings: -102
  • BetUS: -110
  • BetRivers: -113

Across most books, Gustafsson holds modest favorite status (lines clustered between -110 and -123), while Fakhretdinov teeters between underdog (+103) and slight favorite in select markets (DraftKings: -102).

Best Sportsbook for Value

• To back the favorite, BetUS at -110 offers the smallest minus line, maximizing your return on an Andreas play.
• To bet the underdog, BetOnline.ag at +103 delivers the juiciest plus-money payout on Rinat.

Line Movement & Big Swings

A glance at the BetOnline.ag line history reveals dramatic shifts in public perception:

• August 21: Gustafsson opened at +105, then briefly climbed to +150 before settling around +130.
• August 24: Heavy action flipped Gustafsson from +100 into the -125 range, signaling sharp confidence.
• Current: Stabilized at -123, reflecting sustained backing.

Meanwhile, Fakhretdinov journeyed from -125 on August 21 to +100 within 24 hours—an almost unprecedented swing—before the line reined in at +103. This volatility suggests large tickets shifting toward the Swedish striker, forcing bookmakers to adjust.

$1,000 Bet Payouts & Implied Probabilities

Wondering what a four-figure wager could yield? Here’s your scenario:

• $1,000 on Gustafsson at -110 (BetUS)
  • Profit: $909
  • Total Return: $1,909
  • Implied Win Probability: ~52.4%

• $1,000 on Fakhretdinov at +103 (BetOnline.ag)
  • Profit: $1,030
  • Total Return: $2,030
  • Implied Win Probability: ~49.3%

No deep math needed—just know that backing the favorite nets you a healthier chance but smaller payoff, while rooting for the Russian underdog could more than double your stake on a victory.

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Key Takeaways:

• Gustafsson is the consensus pick, with lighter minus lines surfacing at BetUS and Caesars.
• Fakhretdinov remains live value at +103 for those seeking bigger upside.
• Sharp money has driven a significant line reversal for both men, underlining how bettors and pros alike see this as an exceedingly tight toss-up.

Whether you side with the precision striking of Gustafsson or the well-rounded attack of Fakhretdinov, the odds paint a picture of two evenly matched welterweights—and you now know exactly where to get the most bang for your betting buck.