Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull Fight Analysis
Event Overview
Mark your calendars for UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3, taking place at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. The featherweight showdown between Dan Ige and Patricio “Pitbull” Freire is slated for July 20, 2025, with the main card officially kicking off at 02:00 UTC (approximately 10:00 PM ET on July 19). This non-title bout is positioned on the Main Card, offering fans an explosive clash before the highly anticipated trilogy headliner between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier.
Preview of the Contenders
- Dan Ige (19–9–0) enters this matchup as the favorite, currently listed around -180 on BetRivers. The American, ranked #12 in the featherweight division, has built his UFC resume on a blend of crisp striking and relentless pace. With 7 knockouts, 5 submissions, and an average fight time of just under 13 minutes, Ige has proven himself more than capable of top-15 competition.
- Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (36–8–0) makes his UFC debut fresh off a storied Cage Warriors and Bellator career, where he amassed 12 knockouts, 12 submissions, and held championship gold in multiple weight classes. Despite his legendary status, he enters as the underdog, trading around +140 on DraftKings (also seeing odds near +130 on BetOnline.ag and +125 at Caesars). At 37 years old, “Pitbull” brings a veteran’s savvy and unorthodox guard—he boasts an impressive sluggers’ resume but will need to navigate Ige’s youth and UFC-caliber striking.
Key Storylines
- Striking vs. Striking
Both fighters are known for their precise stand-up. Ige’s 46% significant strike accuracy and forward pressure will clash with Patricio’s more measured approach, landing at 41% accuracy but compensating with heavy power and unpredictable angles. - Experience in the Cage
While Ige has logged 28 UFC rounds against top 15 foes, this marks Pitbull’s UFC debut. The Brazilian’s championship pedigree in Bellator cannot be understated, but adjusting to the Octagon’s nuances poses a legitimate question. - Cardio and Durability
Ige’s average fight time of 12:42 suggests he often pushes the pace early, whereas Pitbull’s 16:20 average and 12 first-round finishes hint at finishing instincts but also potential gas tank concerns in deeper waters.
Why This Matters
This bout blends the UFC’s youthful hunger with a legendary career’s twilight chapter. Ige looks to cement his place among the division’s elite, while Patricio Pitbull aims to remind the MMA world why he’s considered one of the greatest featherweights ever. Bettors will weigh Ige’s proven UFC track record and home-field energy against Pitbull’s veteran craft and knockout power.
As the opening salvo of the main card, Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull promises fireworks, and with the lines favoring Ige, savvy gamblers will be eyeing potential value on the Brazilian dynamo. Whether you’re here for the stats or the spectacle, this matchup is set to deliver.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.
Matchup Breakdown and Fighter Profiles
Dan Ige – The #12 Contender
Age: 33
Country: United States 🇺🇸
Fighting Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu base with heavy boxing and relentless forward pace
Record: 19–9–0
UFC Debut: Jul. 25, 2017
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Win vs. Sean Woodson (KO/TKO, Round 3 – Apr. 12, 2025)
- Loss vs. Lerone Murphy (Decision – Unanimous – Oct. 26, 2024)
- Loss vs. Diego Lopes (Decision – Unanimous – Jun. 29, 2024)
- Win vs. Andre Fili (KO/TKO, Round 1 – Feb. 10, 2024)
- Loss vs. Bryce Mitchell (Decision – Unanimous – Sep. 23, 2023)
Ige enters this bout 2–3 in his last five, alternating electrifying knockout finishes with hard-fought decision defeats. He’s lethal when the pace is fast, but has struggled with elusive, unorthodox strikers and crafty counter-punchers.
Strengths
- Striking Accuracy (46%): Lands nearly half of his significant strikes, using volume to overwhelm opponents.
- KO Power & Finishing Instincts: 7 knockouts and 7 first-round finishes point to dangerous early offense.
- Cardio & Pressure: Averages just 12:42 per outing, often setting a punishing pace that tests opponents’ gas tanks.
Weaknesses
- Takedown Defense (58%): Vulnerable against wrestlers—opponents like Lerone Murphy exploited his grappling in their decision win.
- Decision Losses: Three unanimous decision defeats in five fights suggest trouble adapting when the striking exchanges slow.
- Chin Durability: While resilient, he’s been dropped and controlled against high-level strikers (e.g., Diego Lopes).
Patricio “Pitbull” Freire – The Legendary Underdog
Age: 37
Country: Brazil 🇧🇷
Fighting Style: Well-rounded MMA with elite wrestling defense and devastating ground submissions
Record: 36–8–0
UFC Debut: Apr. 12, 2025
Recent Form (Last 1 UFC Fight, plus Bellator legacy)
- Loss vs. Yair Rodriguez (Decision – Unanimous – Apr. 12, 2025)
Coming off his UFC debut defeat, “Pitbull” has otherwise dominated Bellator for over a decade, amassing multiple titles and first-round finishes. The lone UFC blemish came against the lightning-fast Rodriguez, exposing him to high-volume striking.
Strengths
- Takedown Defense (89%): One of the best in MMA—difficult to wrestle down, forcing opponents into striking exchanges.
- Finishing Versatility: 12 KOs, 12 submissions; can end the fight anywhere.
- Experience & Fight IQ: Over 40 world-class bouts; excels at mid-fight adjustments and grappling scrambles.
Weaknesses
- Striking Accuracy (41%): Less efficient on the feet, landing two-of-five significant strikes attempted.
- Age & Pace: At 37, cardio in later rounds and recovery between bursts could be tested by a high-output foe.
- Takedown Offense (20%): Rarely initiates ground offense, relying instead on defense and opportunistic counters.
Head-to-Head Dynamics
- Striking Duel: Ige’s volume punching vs. Pitbull’s power and counter-striking.
- Grappling Exchange: Pitbull’s elite takedown defense against Ige’s 26% takedown accuracy—likely a stalemate unless Ige adjusts.
- Cardio Test: Ige thrives on pace; Pitbull’s championship rounds experience could neutralize late-fight pressure.
This fight is a classic clash of youthful aggression against veteran savvy. Dan Ige will look to bully “Pitbull” with continuous offense, while Patricio aims to weather the storm, set traps, and capitalize on any defensive lapses. Bettors and fans should watch for whether Ige can break through that 89% takedown defense or if Pitbull can drag the fight into deeper waters and exploit age-related wear.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Betting Odds
- Dan Ige (Favorite): −180 on BetRivers
- Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (Underdog): +140 on DraftKings, +130 on BetOnline.ag, +125 at Caesars
Dan Ige’s lone available line at BetRivers shows him as a solid favorite, requiring a $180 stake to win $100. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire enters as the clear underdog, with DraftKings offering the most generous +140 odds. If you’re shopping for value on the upset, DraftKings currently presents the best return. For bettors siding with Ige, BetRivers is your go-to site.
Line Movement & Historical Swings
- Patricio Pitbull (DraftKings):
• July 4: +110 → July 7: +140
• A substantial drift of 30 points in three days, signaling heavy action on Dan Ige or fading support for the Brazilian veteran. - Patricio Pitbull (BetOnline.ag):
• July 4 (14:10): +170 → July 4 (16:00): +165 → July 5 (03:30): +155 → July 5 (06:19): +150 → July 5 (11:40): +105 → July 7: +130
• Notable volatility, especially the sharp drop to +105, then a reversal back to +130, suggesting late money on both sides. - Patricio Pitbull (Caesars):
• Posted at +125 as of July 7 with minimal movement. - Dan Ige (BetRivers):
• July 5: −175 → July 7: −180
• A modest shift reinforcing his status as the favorite, with bettors steadily backing Ige.
Overall, Pitbull’s odds have fluctuated wildly, reflecting uncertainty among sportsbooks and bettors alike. Ige’s line has crept slightly more negative, pointing to consistent support for the American.
$1,000 Bet Outcomes & Implied Chances
- Bet on Dan Ige at −180 (BetRivers):
• Wager: $1,000 → Profit: $556 → Total Return: $1,556
• Implied Win Probability: ~64% - Bet on Patricio Pitbull at +140 (DraftKings):
• Wager: $1,000 → Profit: $1,400 → Total Return: $2,400
• Implied Win Probability: ~42%
Best Sportsbook to Use
- For Ige bettors: BetRivers offers the only available line (−180)—lock it in early before further movement.
- For Pitbull backers: DraftKings’ +140 is the sharpest dog price on the board, providing maximum upside on an underdog play.
Why This Matters
Tracking line movement can reveal where sharp money is going. The dramatic swings on Pitbull indicate both heavy betting and rapid reaction to news—perhaps Ige’s rising stock after his KO of Sean Woodson or concerns over Pitbull’s UFC debut loss. If you believe “Pitbull” still carries elite finishing power and championship experience, striking at +140 could yield a lucrative payday. Conversely, if you trust Ige’s proven UFC track record and home-field energy, −180 still represents a solid favorite price, especially if that line drifts further north as fight night approaches.
AI Pick: Dan Ige
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Dan Ige, or see all the AI picks for Holloway vs Poirier 3. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
