Modestas Bukauskas vs Paul Craig - AI generated fight pick

Modestas Bukauskas is the more well-rounded and statistically reliable fighter in this matchup. He is six years younger than Paul Craig, which is significant given the physical demands of the light heavyweight division and Craig's age (37). Bukauskas has a higher significant strike defense (51% vs. 44%) and a vastly superior takedown defense (78% vs. 35%), which is crucial against Craig's submission-heavy style (13 wins by submission). Bukauskas also has a much higher takedown accuracy (67% vs. 19%), and his striking is more effective and defensively sound. Paul Craig is on a five-fight losing streak, showing signs of decline, and has struggled against opponents who can keep the fight standing and defend takedowns. Historically, fighters with Bukauskas's profile (younger, higher defensive stats, kickboxing base, strong takedown defense) have performed well against aging submission specialists on losing streaks. All recent data and matchup factors point to Bukauskas having the edge in durability, striking, and defensive grappling.