Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez Fight Analysis
Introduction
On Saturday, August 9, 2025, featherweights Andre Fili and Christian Rodriguez will square off as part of the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez, live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The bout is slated to begin at approximately 4:00 p.m. PT / 7:00 p.m. ET and promises to deliver high‐octane action in the Featherweight division. Both athletes come into this clash with contrasting resumes, physical profiles, and recent momentum, setting the stage for a compelling stylistic matchup.
Christian Rodriguez, riding a wave of hype since his debut in February 2022, enters this fight as the -200 favorite (BetOnline.ag), boasting a 12-3-0 professional record. The 27-year-old “Tarzan” from Chicago has already displayed well‐rounded skills in his short UFC tenure—possessing 51% significant strike accuracy, a 55% defense, and an impressive 47% takedown success rate. Rodriguez’s athleticism and relentless pace have underpinned five first-round finishes in his career, and he looks to extend his winning ways after a unanimous‐decision victory over Austin Bashi in January. Despite a unanimous‐decision setback to Melquizael Costa in March, Rodriguez remains a rapidly improving contender with a dynamic freestyle background and a well‐rounded arsenal that makes him a legitimate title aspirant in the near future.
On the other side of the Octagon stands Andre Fili, the 34-year-old veteran from Federal Way, Washington. “Touchy” Fili carries a 24-12-0 record and comes in as the +170 underdog according to current odds. Having competed in the UFC since 2013, Fili brings a wealth of experience, ten finishes inside the distance, and a proven ability to land crushing strikes—evidenced by his 10 knockout victories. Despite a mixed run of late, including a submission loss to Melquizael Costa in February and a split‐decision defeat to Nathaniel Wood last July, Fili’s grinding MMA style, 44% takedown accuracy, and 70% takedown defense make him a tough test for any up‐and‐comer. His 74-inch reach and propensity for forward pressure could pose significant challenges for the more technically polished Rodriguez.
This matchup is a classic veteran vs. prospect showdown. The 7-inch age gap and experience differential contrast sharply with Rodriguez’s youth and ascending trajectory. For bettors, the question boils down to whether Fili’s veteran craftiness and finishing power can offset Rodriguez’s athleticism, volume striking, and well‐rounded skill set. Rodriguez is favored on the moneyline, reflecting both his recent form and perceived upside, while Fili’s underdog status offers value for those expecting a war of attrition or a fight‐finishing surge from the seasoned veteran.
As the countdown to fight night begins, fans and bettors alike will be closely monitoring any shifts in the line movement, weight‐cut updates, and potential stylistic tweaks. Regardless of the outcome, the Featherweight division stands to benefit from another high‐intensity battle, and this clash between classical MMA experience and raw athletic potential is the perfect appetizer for the main event later that evening.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dolidze vs Hernandez can be found on the Dolidze vs Hernandez event page.
Matchup and Fighter Profiles
Christian Rodriguez: The Rising Prospect
Background
- Age: 27
- Country: United States (Chicago, IL)
- Fighting Style: Freestyle Wrestling & Aggressive Striking
- Physicals: 5’7″ height, 146 lb, 71.5″ reach
Christian “Tarzan” Rodriguez burst onto the UFC scene in February 2022 and quickly established himself as a dynamic featherweight. Blessed with a blend of wrestling prowess and improving striking, Rodriguez utilizes his athleticism to press the pace and secure takedowns or punish opponents at range.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Mar. 29, 2025 vs. Melquizael Costa – Loss (Decision – Unanimous)
- Jan. 11, 2025 vs. Austin Bashi – Win (Decision – Unanimous)
- Jul. 13, 2024 vs. Julian Erosa – Loss (Submission – Guillotine, R1)
- Mar. 16, 2024 vs. Isaac Dulgarian – Win (Decision – Split)
- Oct. 14, 2023 vs. Cameron Saaiman – Win (Decision – Unanimous)
Rodriguez is 3-2 over his last five outings, with his losses coming via unanimous decision and a first-round submission—signaling both durability and occasional submission vulnerability.
Strengths & Weaknesses
- Striking Accuracy (51%) & Defense (55%): Above-average output and a solid guard allow him to out-land many opponents.
- Takedown Accuracy (47%) & Defense (69%): He successfully chains wrestling to ground control but can be stuffed by elite wrestlers.
- Cardio & Pace: Averaging 12:40 per fight, Rodriguez maintains high volume into later rounds.
- Submission Susceptibility: Loss to Erosa via guillotine highlights occasional lapses in head-position and submission defense.
- Power Output: Only 3 KOs suggest more of a pressure fighter than one-punch knockout artist.
Andre Fili: The Seasoned Finisher
Background
- Age: 34
- Country: United States (Federal Way, WA)
- Fighting Style: Well-Rounded MMA with Emphasis on Striking Power
- Physicals: 5’11″ height, 145 lb, 74″ reach
A UFC veteran since 2013, Andre Fili blends crisp boxing with savvy octagon IQ. His length and forward pressure allow him to dictate distance, while experience gives him composure in scrambles and late-fight situations.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Feb. 22, 2025 vs. Melquizael Costa – Loss (Submission – Rear-Naked Choke, R1)
- Jun. 29, 2024 vs. Cub Swanson – Win (Decision – Split)
- Feb. 10, 2024 vs. Dan Ige – Loss (KO/TKO, R1)
- Dec. 16, 2023 vs. Lucas Almeida – Win (KO/TKO, R1)
- Jul. 22, 2023 vs. Nathaniel Wood – Loss (Decision – Unanimous)
Fili sits at 2-3 over his last five, alternating wins and losses—demonstrating flashes of finishing ability alongside vulnerability to submissions and power strikers.
Strengths & Weaknesses
- Knockout Power: 10 KOs and 8 first-round finishes showcase elite one-punch potency, especially early.
- Reach Advantage (74″): Allows him to control range and initiate strikes before opponents can counter.
- Takedown Defense (70%): Solid anti-wrestling skills force opponents to keep the fight standing.
- Striking Accuracy (38%) & Defense (51%): Below-average precision and defense leave him open to counters from skilled strikers.
- Submission Defense: R1 choke loss to Costa underscores occasional lapses in grappling exchanges.
- Durability & Cardio: An average fight time of 10:21 with split decisions suggests respectable gas tank but declining recovery vs younger foes.
Head-to-Head Variables
- Experience vs. Youth: Fili’s 12-year UFC tenure contrasts Rodriguez’s 3-year track, offering Fili octagon savvy while Rodriguez brings fresher legs.
- Power vs. Pace: Fili’s knockout threat must navigate Rodriguez’s pressure, volume striking, and wrestling entries.
- Reach & Size: Fili’s 4″ reach edge could neutralize Rodriguez’s attacks if he maintains distance, but Rodriguez’s compact frame aids in defensive striking and takedown set-ups.
In this matchup, Rodriguez’s well-rounded athleticism and pace will clash with Fili’s veteran power and cage craft—making for a compelling stylistic puzzle that tests each fighter’s primary strengths and exposed weaknesses.
Odds & Betting Trends
Current Betting Odds
- Christian Rodriguez: -200 (BetOnline.ag)
- Andre Fili: +170 (BetOnline.ag)
Rodriguez enters this bout as the clear favorite at -200, meaning you must wager $200 to win $100. Fili, at +170, is the underdog, where a $100 stake returns $170 in profit. The 370-point swing highlights the market’s belief in Rodriguez’s upside, while Fili’s value lies in his veteran power and octagon savvy.
Line Movement & Historical Swings
Tracking the odds from BetOnline.ag over the past five days reveals significant shifts on both sides:
• 2025-07-24 – Rodriguez -225 | Fili +190
• 2025-07-25 11:40 – Rodriguez -210 | Fili +180
• 2025-07-25 17:19 – Rodriguez -200 | Fili +170
• 2025-07-26 18:30 – Rodriguez -190 | Fili +165
• 2025-07-28 08:29 – Rodriguez -200 | Fili +170
Key takeaways:
- Early heavy action on Rodriguez pushed him to -225, reflecting sharp money on the prospect’s wrestling and volume striking.
- A mid-week influx of underdog bettors trimmed Rodriguez’s line to -190 and shortened Fili’s payout to +165.
- Late-cycle money swung back to Rodriguez (settling at -200) as news of his health, training reports, and coach confirmations bolstered confidence.
Implied Probabilities & $1,000 Payouts
Without diving into the math, the market implies roughly:
- Christian Rodriguez: ~67% chance to win
- Andre Fili: ~37% chance to win
Betting $1,000 on each fighter:
- Rodriguez (-200): You’d win $500, pocketing $1,500 total return.
- Fili (+170): You’d win $1,700, pocketing $2,700 total return.
Best Sportsbook to Bet On
Currently, BetOnline.ag offers the most competitive lines for this matchup. As one of the oldest online sportsbooks servicing U.S. players, it provides:
- Tight spreads on UFC moneylines
- Fast, reliable payouts and crypto options
- Regular promos and boosted odds for UFC events
While other major books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) may open similar markets closer to fight night, BetOnline’s current line—especially on Fili at +170—offers standout value for underdog backers.
Whether you lean on Rodriguez’s consistent finishing pace or Fili’s veteran power and reach, stacking line movement with implied probabilities and payout scenarios arms you with the data needed to make an informed wager. Keep an eye on any late developments—injury reports, weight-cut updates, or unexpected public money shifts—before pulling the trigger on your UFC bet.
AI Pick: Andre Fili
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Andre Fili, or see all the AI picks for Dolidze vs Hernandez. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
