Iasmin Lucindo vs Angela Hill fight analysis
Introduction
Get ready for an action-packed Women’s Strawweight clash on Saturday, August 9, 2025, as Iasmin Lucindo takes on veteran contender Angela Hill on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez. The bout is scheduled to kick off at 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. This non-title showdown pits two highly experienced strikers against each other in a stylistic chess match that promises fireworks from the very first bell.
Fighters at a Glance
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Iasmin Lucindo (Red Corner)
• Record: 17–6–0
• Age: 23
• UFC Rank: #8 Women’s Strawweight
• Betting Odds: –170 (favorite)
• Fighting Style: Striker
• Notable Stats: 60% takedown accuracy, 45% significant strike accuracy, 66% significant strike defense. -
Angela Hill (Blue Corner)
• Record: 18–14–0
• Age: 40
• UFC Rank: #12 Women’s Strawweight
• Betting Odds: +145 (underdog)
• Fighting Style: Muay Thai
• Notable Stats: 50% significant strike accuracy, 61% significant strike defense, 33% takedown accuracy, 75% takedown defense.
Setting the Stage
This matchup carries significant implications for the strawweight division. Lucindo, making her UFC debut on August 13, 2022, has surged through the roster with crisp striking and relentless pressure. At just 23 years old, she already boasts eight knockouts and three submissions under her belt, with a career average fight time of 13:57. Her youth and power make her the -170 favorite, as she looks to leverage her wrestling skills and aggressive pace to overwhelm those less explosive.
In contrast, Angela Hill enters as the seasoned campaigner—a stalwart of the UFC landscape since December 12, 2014. With five stoppages, including a recent split-decision win over Ketlen Souza, Hill’s warrior spirit and cardio are legendary. Despite her underdog status at +145, her experience against top-tier opponents, plus a 75% takedown defense, means she’s exceptionally difficult to put away.
Why This Fight Matters
- Division Shake-Up: A win for Lucindo could catapult her into the top five, setting up potential matchups with bantamweight threats.
- Legacy on the Line: Hill, at 40, is fighting to prove she still belongs among the elite, determined to extend her decades-long UFC tenure.
- Contrasting Styles: Lucindo’s power and wrestling vs. Hill’s volume striking and Muay Thai craft make for an intriguing tactical battle.
As the clock ticks toward fight night, oddsmakers have clearly favored Iasmin Lucindo, but don’t count out the veteran savvy of Angela Hill. Expect a fast-paced, technical slugfest where heart and game plans will decide who climbs the next rung of the strawweight ladder.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Iasmin Lucindo vs Angela Hill can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Dolidze vs Hernandez can be found on the Dolidze vs Hernandez event page.
Matchup & Individual Profiles
Iasmin Lucindo
Background
- Age: 23
- Country: Brazil
- Fighting Style: Striker
- Record: 17–6–0
- Physicals: Height 5’3″ (63″), Reach 5’6″ (66″), Leg Reach 3’0″ (36″)
- UFC Debut: August 13, 2022
Lucindo burst onto the UFC scene with an aggressive, high-pressure striking attack. With eight career knockouts and three submissions, she combines power punching with competent grappling entries, making her a constant finishing threat despite her relative inexperience at 23.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Mar. 08, 2025 – Loss vs. Amanda Lemos (Decision – Unanimous)
- Oct. 05, 2024 – Win vs. Marina Rodriguez (Decision – Split)
- May 04, 2024 – Win vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (Decision – Unanimous)
- Aug. 12, 2023 – Win vs. Polyana Viana (Submission, R2 3:42)
- Apr. 22, 2023 – Win vs. Brogan Walker (Decision – Unanimous)
Lucindo has rattled off four wins in five Octagon appearances, with her lone blemish coming against the durable Lemos. Her split-decision victory over top-10 foe Marina Rodriguez underlined her ability to grind out close decisions.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Takedown Accuracy (60%) – Rare for a striker of her ilk, Lucindo’s wrestling entries allow her to mix levels and keep opponents guessing.
- Finishing Prowess – 11 of 17 wins by stoppage demonstrate her power and submission savvy.
- Defensive Striking (66%) – Able to absorb and evade significant strikes, limiting damage over three rounds.
Weaknesses:
- Striking Accuracy (45%) – Below-average output for a primary striker, leaving openings when she overcommits.
- Takedown Defense (55%) – Vulnerable if forced to sprawl, especially against high-level wrestlers or grapplers who chain takedown attempts.
- Experience Level – Only three years in the UFC compared to Hill’s decade-plus tenure.
Angela Hill
Background
- Age: 40
- Country: United States
- Fighting Style: Muay Thai
- Record: 18–14–0
- Physicals: Height 5’3″ (63″), Reach 5’4½″ (64.5″), Leg Reach 3’2½″ (38.5″)
- UFC Debut: December 12, 2014
A fixture of the women’s strawweight division, Hill’s crisp jab, leg kicks and forward pressure have given her a reputation as one of the most active fighters in UFC history. Her exceptional cardio allows her to maintain volume from bell to bell.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Feb. 15, 2025 – Win vs. Ketlen Souza (Decision – Split)
- Aug. 24, 2024 – Loss vs. Tabatha Ricci (Decision – Unanimous)
- May 18, 2024 – Win vs. Luana Pinheiro (Submission, R2 4:12)
- Nov. 04, 2023 – Win vs. Denise Gomes (Decision – Unanimous)
- May 20, 2023 – Loss vs. Mackenzie Dern (Decision – Unanimous)
Hill has alternated wins and losses but remains dangerous on the feet and in transitions. Her split-decision win over Souza showed she can edge out close battles when needed.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Striking Volume & Accuracy (50%) – High work rate, landing half of her significant strikes with pinpoint timing.
- Takedown Defense (75%) – Excellent sprawl rate frustrates wrestlers and slows grappling specialists.
- Cardio & Durability – Unmatched gas tank and chin capable of withstanding late-round adversity.
Weaknesses:
- Takedown Offense (33%) – Limited wrestling output makes her one-dimensional if opponent nullifies her striking.
- Finishing Rate – Only five KO wins and zero submission wins in UFC tenure, often left in decision territory.
- Age & Wear – At 40, the accumulation of high-pace fights may lead to slower reflexes and recovery.
Matchup Outlook
This clash pits Lucindo’s youth, power and wrestling against Hill’s experience, volume striking and cardio. Lucindo will look to mix takedowns with sharp combinations to exploit Hill’s underwhelming takedown offense, while Hill aims to keep the fight upright and outwork her younger foe over three rounds. Statistically, Lucindo holds the edge in offensive grappling and finishing ability, but Hill’s defensive acumen and veteran savvy could neutralize those advantages—setting the stage for a compelling tactical battle.
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Odds Snapshot
- Iasmin Lucindo (Favorite): –170 at BetOnline.ag
- Angela Hill (Underdog): +145 at BetOnline.ag
As of the latest update, Iasmin Lucindo is the clear favorite at –170, while Angela Hill sits at +145. That means you must risk more on Lucindo to win a smaller return, whereas Hill offers a larger payday if she pulls off the upset. Among major sportsbooks, BetOnline.ag currently provides these most competitive prices, making it the go-to option for bettors on this fight.
Line Movement & Swing Analysis
Tracking the line from July 24 through July 28 reveals moderate swings:
Angela Hill
• July 24: +145
• July 25 (11:40 AM): +140
• July 25 (4:29 PM): +135
• July 26 (6:19 PM): +130 ← peak underdog value
• July 26 (11:29 PM): +140
• July 28: +145
Iasmin Lucindo
• July 24: –170
• July 25 (11:40 AM): –160
• July 25 (4:29 PM): –155
• July 26 (6:19 PM): –150 ← shortest favorite price
• July 26 (11:29 PM): –160
• July 28: –170
Both fighters saw roughly a 15–20 point swing before settling back to their opening lines. Lucindo briefly dipped to –150 before returning to –170, suggesting early money for Hill briefly pushed the favorite price lower. Conversely, Hill bottomed out at +130 when bettors poured in on Lucindo, but then drifted back to +145 as action balanced.
Payout & Implied Probabilities
If you wager $1,000 on either fighter today:
• $1,000 on Iasmin Lucindo (–170) returns $1,588 total (profit $588).
• $1,000 on Angela Hill (+145) returns $2,450 total (profit $1,450).
Based on these prices, Lucindo carries roughly a 63% chance to win, while Hill is viewed at about a 41% shot. These probabilities reflect where the sharp money and public sentiment have landed as fight night approaches.
Where to Bet
- Primary Pick’em: BetOnline.ag
- Why BetOnline.ag?:
• Consistent, early line releases—ideal for capturing sharp openers.
• Reliable live odds updates and robust props menu.
• Strong reputation in MMA markets with competitive juice.
Other major books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) may mirror these lines, but BetOnline.ag edges them on juice and availability of niche props (round-by-round, method of victory). For those seeking the best value on Iasmin Lucindo vs Angela Hill, locking in these opening prices at BetOnline.ag could be the smart play before fluctuations settle in.
Whether you back the rising Brazilian star or the battle-tested American veteran, understanding the odds movement and payout structure can turn a simple wager into a strategic investment. Choose your fighter, size up the risk, and bet smart—because in the ever-shifting world of UFC odds, timing is just as critical as pick selection.
AI Pick: Iasmin Lucindo
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Iasmin Lucindo, or see all the AI picks for Dolidze vs Hernandez. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
