Winner: Kevin Holland
Confidence Score: 68Kevin Holland holds significant physical advantages, including a 7-inch reach advantage (81" vs. 74") and is six years younger than Daniel Rodriguez (32 vs. 38). Holland's finishing ability is higher, with 14 KO and 9 submission wins, and he has 13 first-round finishes compared to Rodriguez's 5. Both fighters are coming off recent wins, but Holland's overall resume in the UFC is deeper and more varied, having faced a higher caliber of opposition. Holland's striking output and accuracy (50%) is slightly better than Rodriguez's (49%), and his longer reach should allow him to control range and land more effectively. Although Rodriguez has better takedown stats, Holland's submission threat and ability to fight off his back mitigate this. Historically, fighters with Holland's reach and age profile have a higher win rate in similar matchups, especially when facing older opponents with less reach. Given these factors, Holland is the slight favorite, but Rodriguez's durability and boxing make this a competitive fight.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.