Winner: Ryan Spann
Confidence Score: 75Ryan Spann is the more proven UFC fighter with a significant edge in finishing ability, especially by submission (13 wins by sub vs Brzeski's 1). Spann has a much higher rate of first-round finishes (16 to Brzeski's 3), and a shorter average fight time, indicating finishing power and aggression. While Brzeski has a slight edge in striking accuracy and defense, his takedown defense is a major weakness (37%), which is a critical flaw against Spann's grappling and submission skills. Brzeski has also been stopped by KO/TKO three times in his last five fights, showing vulnerability to powerful finishers. Spann's recent losses have come against higher-level competition and he has a more versatile MMA game, with a reach and size advantage as well. Historically, fighters with Spann's submission numbers and finishing rates in the heavyweight division win at a high clip versus strikers with poor takedown defense. Unless Spann is caught early, his grappling and submission threat should be decisive.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.