Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey: Odds & Prediction UFC 318

Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey Fight Breakdown

Event Details

Date: Saturday, July 19, 2025
Time: 10:15 PM ET (Early Preliminary Card)
Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Event: UFC 318 – Holloway vs Poirier 3

On Saturday night, MMA fans will be treated to a compelling middleweight showdown as Brunno Ferreira (13-2-0) takes on promotional newcomer Jackson McVey (0-0-0). This bout officially kicks off the early prelims on the UFC 318 card, slated to begin at 10:15 PM ET inside the Smoothie King Center.

Meet the Favorite and the Underdog

With opening odds of -650 at BetOnline.ag (and -590 at BetRivers), Brunno “Bate Estacas” Ferreira enters as a prohibitive favorite. The Brazilian grappler boasts nine knockouts and four submissions in 13 career wins, including ten finishes in the opening frame. At 32 years old, Ferreira has quickly risen through the middleweight ranks thanks to his devastating top game, 50% significant-strike accuracy, and a knack for ending fights before the final horn.

Standing across the Octagon is Jackson McVey, a 26-year-old welterweight-turned-middleweight making his UFC debut. Representing St. Paul, Minnesota, McVey arrives with an unblemished professional record of 0-0-0 in the UFC database (no recorded amateur or regional stats to date) and opening moneyline odds of +475 (BetOnline.ag) and +400 (BetRivers). As a true unknown, McVey carries all the intrigue of a prospect stepping onto the sport’s biggest stage for the very first time.

What’s at Stake

For Ferreira, a victory maintains momentum in the stacked middleweight division and keeps his finish streak alive, edging him closer to ranked opponents. A dominant performance could catapult him into the conversation for a Top 15 opponent next. Meanwhile, McVey’s debut is a make-or-break moment: an upset win over a UFC veteran not only shocks the betting markets but instantly etches his name into the rising-star discussion.

Key Storylines

• Experience vs. Debut: Ferreira’s 15-fight pro résumé contrasts sharply with McVey’s UFC baptism by fire.
• Grappling Threat: Ferreira’s submission savvy (23% takedown accuracy, 54% defense) will test McVey’s unknown wrestling base.
• Power Differential: Nine KO/TKO wins highlight Ferreira’s finishing power, while McVey must prove he can withstand—and counter—the Brazilian’s onslaught.

As the early prelim action unfolds, all eyes will be on whether Brunno Ferreira can showcase his trademark grappling dominance or if Jackson McVey can shock the world and spring the biggest upset of UFC 318’s opening night. Whatever the outcome, this middleweight clash promises fireworks and sets the tone for an electrifying pay-per-view main card.

Live odds

Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Holloway vs Poirier 3 can be found on the Holloway vs Poirier 3 event page.

Matchup and Fighter Profiles

Brunno Ferreira Profile

Age: 32
Country: Brazil
Fighting Style: Grappler
UFC Record: 13-2-0

Brunno “Bate Estacas” Ferreira has established himself as one of the most dangerous middleweights in the UFC’s depth chart. With a professional MMA record of 13 wins and 2 losses, Ferreira combines explosive power with world-class submission skills. His significant-strike accuracy sits at 50%, while he defends half of all incoming strikes (50% Sig Strike Defense). On the mat, he secures 23% of his takedown attempts and fends off 54% of opponents’ takedown attempts. Ferreira averages just 05:39 per fight and has 10 first-round finishes, showcasing his capacity to overwhelm opponents quickly.

Recent Form

1. Win vs Artem Petrosyan (Submission, R2 4:27) – Mar. 8, 2025
2. Loss vs Abus Magomedov (Submission, R3 3:14) – Oct. 26, 2024
3. Win vs Dustin Stoltzfus (KO/TKO, R1 4:51) – Jun. 8, 2024
4. Win vs Phillip Hawes (KO/TKO, R1 4:55) – Jan. 13, 2024
5. Loss vs Nursultan Ruziboev (KO/TKO, R1 1:17) – Jul. 1, 2023

Ferreira has bounced back impressively from setbacks, reeling off three finishes in his last four fights. His lone recent loss came via standing blows—a relative anomaly for a grappler.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Finishing Instinct: 10 of 13 wins end by stoppage, 9 by strikes and 4 by submission.
• Top-Control Grappling: High submission IQ, strong ground-and-pound, solid takedown defense (54%).
• Power & Precision: 50% striking accuracy allows him to land the big shot when opportunities arise.
• Early Pressure: 77% of wins come in rounds one or two, showcasing ability to gas out opponents quickly.

Weaknesses

• Extended Fights: Only one finish beyond Round 2; cardio in deep waters remains untested.
• Submission Defense: Two of his three losses have come via submission, hinting at potential gaps in defensive grappling exchanges.
• Striking Defense: At 50% Sig Strike Defense, he can be tagged by heavy hitters.

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Jackson McVey Profile

Age: 26
Country: United States
Fighting Style: Understudy (regional wrestling base assumed)
UFC Debut: Jun. 28, 2025

Jackson McVey enters the Octagon as a complete unknown—his official UFC record is 0-0-0 and he carries no pro record in the UFC database. Hailing from St. Paul, Minnesota, McVey is believed to possess a solid wrestling foundation, though formal statistics on takedowns, striking accuracy, and fight time are not yet recorded. His moniker as the underdog (+475 BetOnline.ag, +400 BetRivers) underscores both his celebrity-night nervousness potential and the high-risk, high-reward nature of betting on an unproven talent.

Recent Form

• UFC Debut: Making the leap to the sport’s biggest stage with no prior UFC or documented regional fight history in the official database.

Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths

• Unknown Factor: Opponents can’t game-plan for McVey’s style, giving him an element of surprise.
• Youth & Athleticism: At 26, he may carry an edge in speed, recovery, and adaptability over the 32-year-old Ferreira.
• High Upside: Any successful takedown or submission attempt could drastically shift momentum.

Weaknesses

• Inexperience: No recorded UFC-level competition; likely to face nerves.
• Unproven Durability: Fighting a veteran grappler in Ferreira, McVey’s chin and ground defense are untested.
• Technical Gaps: Without measured striking or grappling success rates, he risks being out-paced in both stand-up exchanges and scrambles.

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Head-to-Head Matchup Analysis

• Grappling Exchange: Ferreira’s seasoned top game will be central; McVey must either keep it standing or risk being submitted.
• Striking Battle: Ferreira holds a clear edge in power and precision. McVey’s best path is volume, movement, and counters.
• Pace & Cardio: If McVey can extend past Round 2, Ferreira’s early-fight lethality may wane, offering the debutant a late-fight opportunity.

This bout hinges on Ferreira’s ability to impose his grappling blueprint versus McVey’s capacity to neutralize takedowns and exploit any rookie holes. Expect a high-octane clash of experience versus raw potential.

Odds and Line Movement Analysis

Current Betting Odds

• Brunno Ferreira:
  • BetOnline.ag: -650
  • BetRivers: -590
• Jackson McVey:
  • BetOnline.ag: +475
  • BetRivers: +400

Brunno Ferreira is a heavy favorite across the board, with BetRivers offering the softest favorite line at -590 (you’d risk $590 to win $100). Jackson McVey is a significant underdog, and your best underdog price is +475 at BetOnline.ag (bet $100 to win $475). This sizeable gap—over 1,000 “points” difference between Ferreira’s favorite price and McVey’s underdog price—underscores how much the market trusts Ferreira’s experience and finishing ability.

Historical Line Movement

Both fighters have seen substantial swings in their betting lines since opening:

• Brunno Ferreira (BetOnline.ag):

  • Opened at -350 on July 2
  • Sharply moved to -525 by July 3
  • Pushed out as long as -700 on July 7
  • Settled back to -650 as of July 9

• Jackson McVey (BetOnline.ag):

  • Opened at +285 on July 2
  • Climbed steadily to +450 by July 7
  • Touched as high as +525 mid-day July 7
  • Retracted to +475 on July 9

These swings reflect early sharp action on Ferreira, likely from sharps identifying value in his grappling pedigree. McVey’s line inflated as casual bettors backed the young American underdog, before the odds settled once bookmakers balanced the book.

Best Sportsbook to Bet On

• For Ferreira (Favorite): BetRivers at -590 gives you a slightly lower risk on the favorite side compared to BetOnline.ag’s -650.
• For McVey (Underdog): BetOnline.ag at +475 represents the best value for those looking to back the upset.

Potential Payouts and Implied Probabilities

• $1,000 on Brunno Ferreira at -650 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Net profit: $154
  • Total payout: $1,154

• $1,000 on Brunno Ferreira at -590 (BetRivers):

  • Net profit: $169
  • Total payout: $1,169

• $1,000 on Jackson McVey at +475 (BetOnline.ag):

  • Net profit: $4,750
  • Total payout: $5,750

• $1,000 on Jackson McVey at +400 (BetRivers):

  • Net profit: $4,000
  • Total payout: $5,000

Based on current lines, Ferreira carries roughly an 86–87% implied probability of victory, while McVey sits around 17–18%. These figures illustrate just how daunting Ferreira is on paper—but also how lucrative backing McVey could be if he pulls off a seismic upset.

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Whether you’re backing the chalk with BetRivers’ slimmer vig or targeting the massive payout on McVey at BetOnline.ag, understanding these line movements and odds nuances is key to making an informed wager on this middleweight clash.