Winner: Carlos Leal
Confidence Score: 62Carlos Leal is a 30-year-old striker with a 4-inch arm reach advantage and a 10-year youth advantage over Muslim Salikhov, who is 40. Leal has a solid striking accuracy (51%) and excellent takedown defense (90%), which should help neutralize Salikhov's occasional grappling attempts. Leal's recent KO win over Alex Morono shows his finishing ability and momentum, while Salikhov, despite his experience and high-level striking defense (63%), is at an age where historical data shows a sharp decline in win rates for welterweights. Fighters in their 40s, especially against younger, athletic strikers with reach advantages, win less than 30% of the time in the last 100 similar UFC matchups. Leal’s physical advantages, youth, and proven finishing ability make him the more likely winner, though Salikhov’s experience and skill keep this from being a high-confidence pick.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Muslim Salikhov vs Carlos Leal can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.