Winner: Carlos Prates
Confidence Score: 62Carlos Prates is the pick due to his superior physical attributes, finishing ability, and recent performance. He is younger (31 vs 34), has a significant reach advantage (78" arm, 43.5" leg vs 75" arm, 41" leg), and is an aggressive striker with a 55% significant strike accuracy and 16 KOs in 21 wins. His takedown defense (84%) and perfect takedown accuracy (100%, albeit on low volume) show he can keep the fight standing, where he thrives. Geoff Neal is a tough, experienced striker with strong takedown defense (88%) and better strike defense (57% vs 48%), but he is slightly older and has struggled against long, rangy strikers in recent years. Both are coming off a loss to Ian Garry, but Prates has been more consistent in finishing opponents and has shown the ability to put away durable veterans like Neil Magny. Historically, fighters with Prates' reach and finishing rate in the welterweight division have a slight edge against fighters of Neal's age and size, especially when both are strikers. While Neal is dangerous and has faced higher competition, the data slightly favors Prates' youth, length, and recent KO form.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Du Plessis vs Chimaev can be found on the Du Plessis vs Chimaev event page.