Neil Magny vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos fight analysis
Introduction
Get ready for an electrifying Welterweight showdown as two seasoned veterans collide on the Main Card of UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira. On Saturday, August 2, 2025, from the state-of-the-art UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, Neil Magny and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos will step into the Octagon for what promises to be a high-octane affair. The action is slated to begin at 1:00 AM UTC (evening of August 2 local time), with this pivotal clash sandwiched between the prelims and headliner of the card.
Why This Fight Matters
Both competitors bring decades of UFC experience and contrasting skill sets. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos enters as the favorite, sitting at –235 (BetOnline.ag) to –250 (BetMGM) in the latest head-to-head odds. Zaleski is known for his explosive striking, boasting 15 knockouts in 25 wins and a 42% significant strike accuracy. He’ll look to assert his trademark aggression early, lean on slick footwork, and capitalize on any openings to secure another highlight-reel finish.
On the other side, Neil Magny is the classic underdog at +200 across multiple sportsbooks. With a UFC record of 29-14, “The Haitian Sensation” is famed for his relentless pace, 80-inch reach, and grappling prowess—evident in his 39% takedown accuracy. Magny will aim to neutralize Zaleski’s striking by cutting the cage, mixing in takedowns, and dragging this bout into deep waters where his championship-round cardio gives him an edge.
Key Betting Angles
• Favorite’s Edge: Zaleski’s finishing rate—11 first-round stoppages—underscores his power and fight IQ. Backing the Brazilian to keep things standing and land a decisive blow appeals to bettors chasing a quick finish.
• Underdog Value: Magny’s +200 line offers strong return potential. His grappling credentials and veteran savvy make him a prime candidate to weather an early storm, slow the pace, and outwork Zaleski over three rounds.
Location & Atmosphere
The UFC APEX will once again serve as the backdrop for this pivotal Welterweight contest. Known for its intimate setting and cutting-edge production, the venue ensures every thunderous strike and scramble is captured in vivid detail. Fighters feed off the energy even without a massive crowd, making the action inside the Octagon razor-sharp.
With both men desperate to climb the divisional ladder, expect fireworks from opening bell to final horn. Will Elizeu Zaleski’s power and precision prevail, or can Neil Magny’s reach and wrestling neutralize the Brazilian storm? Strap in—this is a fight you won’t want to miss.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Neil Magny vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Taira vs Park can be found on the Taira vs Park event page.
Matchup & Fighter Profiles
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Background
- Age: 38
- Country: Brazil
- Fighting Style: MMA striker with dynamic Muay Thai flair
Since his UFC debut in May 2015, “Capoeira” Zaleski has built a reputation as one of the most explosive finishers in the Welterweight division. Standing 71" tall with a 73" reach, he blends fluid footwork, heavy hands, and kicks to keep opponents guessing.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Mar 15, 2025 – Loss vs. Chidi Njokuani (KO/TKO, R2 2:19)
- Nov 9, 2024 – Win vs. Zachary Scroggin (KO/TKO, R1 1:15)
- Jun 1, 2024 – Loss vs. Randy Brown (Decision – Unanimous)
- Nov 4, 2023 – Loss vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov (Decision – Majority)
- Jun 3, 2023 – Win vs. Abubakar Nurmagomedov (Decision – Split)
While he sits at 25-9-1, Zaleski’s record belies the caliber of competition he’s faced. He’s earned 11 first-round finishes, showing he’s a nightmare to start with.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Finishing Ability: 15 KOs in 25 wins; 44% of victories end in stoppage, 42% significant strike accuracy.
- Striking Defense: Deflects or avoids 56% of significant strikes.
- Cardio & Pace: Average fight time of 11:43 shows he can maintain a high work rate.
- Experience: 35 pro fights; seasoned against top contenders.
Weaknesses:
- Takedown Defense Susceptibility: 21% takedown accuracy for opponents; his own takedown defense at 69% can be tested by strong grapplers.
- Finish-Or-Die Style: Over‐commitment to exchanges can leave him open to counters (recent KO losses).
- Age Factor: At 38, recovery between camps and late-round sharpness may decline.
Neil Magny
Background
- Age: 37
- Country: United States
- Fighting Style: Wrestler-striker hybrid with exceptional reach control
Magny, nicknamed “The Haitian Sensation,” debuted in February 2013. At 75" tall with an 80" reach, he routinely uses his length to keep opponents at bay, mixing jab‐to‐double‐leg combinations and punishing leg kicks.
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
- Nov 9, 2024 – Loss vs. Carlos Prates (KO/TKO, R1 4:50)
- Aug 24, 2024 – Loss vs. Michael Morales (KO/TKO, R1 4:39)
- Jan 20, 2024 – Win vs. Mike Malott (KO/TKO, R3 4:45)
- Aug 19, 2023 – Loss vs. Ian Garry (Decision – Unanimous)
- Jun 24, 2023 – Win vs. Philip Rowe (Decision – Split)
Magny sits at 29-14-0, with a relatively modest finish rate (8 KOs, 4 submissions). He has yet to score a first-round stoppage in the UFC.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
- Reach & Striking Volume: 46% significant strike accuracy with a daunting 80" wingspan.
- Grappling Arsenal: 39% takedown accuracy complemented by 54% takedown defense—enough to mix up ranges.
- Durability & Cardio: Average fight time of 12:16; proven gas tank into championship rounds.
- Cage Control: Veteran savvy in cutting off the Octagon and dictating pace.
Weaknesses:
- Defensive Holes: 52% strike defense leaves him open to power shots (two straight first‐round knockout losses).
- Lack of Early Finishes: Zero first-round stoppages suggest slow starts; can be overwhelmed by fast starters like Zaleski.
- Inconsistency: Alternating wins and losses in recent outings; struggles to string together momentum.
This stylistic and statistical contrast sets the stage for a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic. Will Zaleski’s finishing prowess overcome Magny’s reach and wrestling, or can Magny drag the Brazilian into deeper waters and capitalize on his defensive lapses?
Betting Odds & Line Movement
Current Odds Overview
Heading into UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira, the latest head-to-head odds clearly designate Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos as the favorite, while Neil Magny draws underdog status:
-
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
• BetOnline.ag: –235
• BetMGM: –250 -
Neil Magny
• BetOnline.ag: +200
• BetMGM: +200
The –235 on BetOnline.ag for Zaleski offers a slightly better return than the –250 at BetMGM, making BetOnline.ag the optimal sportsbook for backing the Brazilian favorite. Both sites agree on Magny at +200, so underdog bettors can shop either line without missing value.
Line Movement Analysis
Tracking the odds history over the past few days reveals only modest shifts, indicating a fairly balanced market with no sharp “steam runs”:
-
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
• July 20: –240 (BetOnline.ag) → July 23: –235
• July 23: –250 (BetMGM, opening line) -
Neil Magny
• July 20: +205 (BetOnline.ag) → July 23: +200
• July 23: +200 (BetMGM, opening line)
These slight movements suggest:
- Bettors nibbling on Magny pushed his line from +205 to +200, believing his reach and grappling could neutralize Zaleski.
- Sharps trimming the favorite saw Zaleski’s BetOnline.ag line move from –240 to –235, indicating confidence but also a desire to lock in slightly better odds.
No dramatic swings or reversals have occurred, so the market appears content with these levels—Magny at +200 carries consistent underdog appeal, while Zaleski remains a strong favorite without overly lopsided pricing.
Payouts & Implied Chances
If you staked $1,000 on either man, here’s what you’d see:
-
Bet $1,000 on Zaleski dos Santos at –235 (Best Line)
• Profit: Approximately $425
• Total Return: About $1,425 -
Bet $1,000 on Magny at +200
• Profit: $2,000
• Total Return: $3,000
In terms of implied probability based on the current lines (without diving into the math), Zaleski looks to have roughly a 70% chance to win, whereas Magny sits in the 30–35% range. These figures reflect the marketplace’s assessment of each fighter’s edge.
Best Sportsbook to Bet On
- Favorite (Zaleski): BetOnline.ag at –235 offers the juiciest line versus BetMGM’s –250.
- Underdog (Magny): Both BetOnline.ag and BetMGM post +200—shop around for promotions, but either book is fine.
With minimal line movement and clear favorite/underdog delineation, the betting market has spoken: Zaleski dos Santos is expected to dictate the pace on the feet, while Magny offers value for those banking on veteran wrestling savvy and reach control. Whether you chase the safer favorite or the lucrative underdog, these odds give you a transparent roadmap for how the pros see this Welterweight scrap unfolding.
AI Pick: Neil Magny
Click the buttons below to read more about why the AI picked Neil Magny, or see all the AI picks for Taira vs Park. Our AI is trained on our fight data and picks winners for every fight. You can track all the picks, accuracy, and profit for free on our ai-picks page.
