Winner: Asu Almabayev
Confidence Score: 86Asu Almabayev has a significant edge in experience, with a 21-3 record compared to Jose Ochoa's 8-1. He is a proven grappler with 9 submission wins and a 43% takedown accuracy, while Ochoa has not shown any offensive wrestling in the UFC (0% takedown accuracy). Almabayev's striking is also more efficient, landing at 54% accuracy versus Ochoa's 32%. While Ochoa is physically longer and has a strong knockout record, his UFC experience is limited and he struggled in his debut against a less proven opponent. Historically, fighters with Almabayev's grappling credentials and experience fare well against younger, less-tested strikers in the flyweight division. Almabayev's ability to mix striking and grappling, plus his proven durability and composure, make him the clear favorite.
Live odds
Live and historic odds as well as more fighter statistics and insights for Asu Almabayev vs Jose Ochoa can be found on the fighter matchup page. All the fighter matchups and live odds for Whittaker vs de Ridder can be found on the Whittaker vs de Ridder event page.